[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081756
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
156 PM EDT Sun Oct 8 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Nate is centered near 33.1N 87.3W at 08/1500
UTC or about 35 nm SW of Birmingham, Alabama. Nate is moving NNE
at 21 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is from 30N-38N between
82W-88W. Feeder bands with scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is over the E Gulf of Mexico. See the latest NHC
Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC and the full Advisory/Forecast under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC for more details.

A nearly stationary 1010 mb low pressure is located over the
central Atlantic near 31N40W. Scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms are mainly northeast through southeast of the
center. Recent satellite-derived winds indicate that the low is
producing a small area of gale-force winds near the center. Only a
slight increase in the amount and organization of the shower
activity would result in the formation of a subtropical or
tropical cyclone later today before environmental conditions
become less favorable for development on Monday. The low is
forecast to move little for the next few days, followed by a slow
motion toward the southeast beginning Thursday. There is a high
chance for tropical cyclone formation within the next 48 hours.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical is off the coast of Africa with axis from 13N20W to
02N20W, moving W at 10 kt. The wave is in a moist area as noted
by SSMI TPW imagery. A surface tough is well defined. Scattered
moderate convection is within 180 nm of the wave axis.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis from 16N45W
to an embedded 1011 mb low near 12N47W, to 06N47W. The wave is
moving W at 10 kt. The wave is in a very moist area as noted by
SSMI TPW imagery. A 700 mb tough is well defined. Widely scattered
moderate convection is within 90 nm of the wave axis. In addition,
scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is NE of the wave
axis from 14N-19N between 40W-45W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis from 18N53W
to 09N56W, moving W at 10 kt. The wave is in a moist area as
noted by SSMI TPW imagery. A surface and 700 mb tough are both
well defined. Isolated moderate convection is from 13N-17N
between 51W-54W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 15N17W to
06N25W to 05N35W. The ITCZ extends from 05N35W to 08N45W. Besides
the convection mentioned in the tropical wave section, scattered
moderate convection is from 03N-06N between 24W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Tropical Depression Nate is inland over N Alabama, however,
a feeder band of scattered moderate convection is over the E Gulf
from 22N-30N between 83W-86W. A surface trough also extends from
30N88W to 27N91W to 25N95W. Scattered moderate convection is
within 45 nm of this trough. Return flow will dominate the Gulf
waters in the wake of Nate Monday ahead of a cold front to come
off the coast of Texas Tuesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Rain bands persist over the NW Caribbean N of 20N and W of 83W due
to T.D.Nate. Further E, isolated moderate convection is S of
Hispaniola from 13N-18N between 67W-72W. Similar convection is
over the Windward Islands from 10N-13N between 61W-65W. Elsewhere,
the eastern extent of the Pacific monsoon trough is producing
scattered showers over Costa Rica and the SW Caribbean, S of 11N.
Presently, 15 kt southerly surface winds are over the W Caribbean
W of 80W. The remainder of the Caribbean has 10 kt easterly
tradewind flow. In the upper levels, a small upper level low is
over the SW Caribbean near 12N80W. Expect, the 10 kt tradewinds
to spread over the entire Caribbean in 24 hours.

...HISPANIOLA...

Presently, isolated moderate convection is over SW Haiti. More
convection is S of Hispaniola. Additional convection is NE of
Hispaniola due to a surface trough. Expect conditions to persist
for the next 24 hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Three tropical waves are moving across the basin. See above. In
the SW N Atlc waters, a surface trough extends from 28N72W to
20N70W. Scattered moderate convection is from 20N-23N between
65W-69W. A 1027 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near
37N56W. Of note in the upper levels, a small upper level low is
centered over the W Atlantic near 29N60W producing scattered
showers. Further S, upper level diffluence is enhancing the
convection NE of Hispaniola.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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