[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051045
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT Thu Oct 5 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Sixteen was centered near 13.3N 83.3W at
05/0900 UTC or about 45 nm S of Puerto Cabezas Nicaragua,
moving NW at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004
mb. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is within 180 nm E of
the center. Heavy rain and life-threatening flash floods or
mudslides are possible during the next 24 hours as it moves
across eastern Nicaragua and Honduras. See the latest NHC Public
Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC and the
Advisory/Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC
for more details.

A tight pressure gradient over the W Atlantic N of 20N supports
20-30 kt easterly winds W of 70W. In addition, an area of low
pressure is starting to develop near the Florida Keys. A gale
warning is in effect for frequent gusts to gale force expected
through mid-day today in the Straits of Florida.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave in the central Atlantic extends from 17N40W to
07N47W moving W at 15 kt. The wave coincides with troughing at
700 mb. Satellite TPW imagery indicates this wave is embedded in
an area of deep-layer moisture. Scattered moderate convection is
within 200 nm W of the wave axis.

A tropical wave extends from 24N65W in the Atlantic into the
Caribbean near 11N69W moving W at 15 kt. The wave coincides with
broad 700 mb troughing and continues to interact with an upper-
level low centered near 17N65W. Divergent upper-level winds on
the east side of the upper level low are supporting isolated to
scattered moderate convection east of the wave axis.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough is near the African coast from 12N16W to
12N19W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone continues from 12N19W
to 07N38W to 11N46W to the South American coast near 07N58W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 04N-11N
between 26W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Strong high pressure over the southeast U.S. and low pressure
associated with T.D. Sixteen near Nicaragua is supporting fresh
to strong easterly winds across the basin. A surface low is in
the Straits of Florida. An upper level high is centered over
northern Mexico near 28N101W. The surface low will move W into
the SE Gulf over the next 24 hours with widespread convection.
Long term, T.D. Sixteen is expected to move into the southern
Gulf on Sat and intensify, then reach the SE U.S. Gulf coast on
Sunday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Tropical Depression Sixteen is expected to track NW across
Nicaragua and Honduras today and reach the Yucatan peninsula
late Fri. Its intensity in the W Caribbean will be largely
determined by how much land interaction disrupts the cyclone
center. An upper low centered over W Cuba near 22N84W is
enhancing clouds and showers over a large area from 14N-22N
between 77W-84W. Farther east, a tropical wave is along 65W-68W.
The wave will move across the central Caribbean through tonight.
Moderate to occasionally fresh trade winds persist elsewhere.

...HISPANIOLA...

A tropical wave east of the island will reach the Dominican
Republic today, then move W of Haiti by Fri evening. Expect
slouds and showers to increase this afternon, then persist
through Fri night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A tight pressure gradient over the W Atlantic N of 20N supports
20-30 kt easterly winds W of 72W. Widespread moderate convection
is E of Florida from 20N-30N between 73W-81W. A stationary front
reaches across the central Atlantic from 32N40W to 27N45W to
25N53W. Widely scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm of
the front. Broad surface ridging extends across the E Atlantic N
of 20N and E of 40W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Mundell
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