[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050600 AAA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...Updated
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Thu Oct 5 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Sixteen is centered near 13.0N 83.0W at
05/0600 UTC or about 65 nm SSE of Puerto Cabezas Nicaragua,
moving NW at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004
mb. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 10N-14N between
81W-84W. See the latest NHC Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC and the Advisory/Forecast under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC for more details.

A tight pressure gradient over the W Atlantic N of 20N supports
20-30 kt easterly winds W of 70W. From 23N-27N W of 78W near S
Florida, a gale warning is in effect for frequent gusts to gale
force expected through mid-day today.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave in the central Atlantic extends from 17N39W to
08N45W moving W at 15 kt. The wave coincides with troughing at
700 mb. Satellite TPW imagery indicates this wave is embedded in
an area of deep-layer moisture. Scattered moderate convection is
within 180 nm of the wave axis.

A tropical wave along 67W extending from the Atlantic into the
Caribbean is moving W at 15-20 kt. The wave coincides with broad
700 mb troughing and continues to interact with an upper-level
low centered near 17N65W. Divergent upper-level winds on the
east side of the upper level low are supporting scattered
moderate convection well east of the wave axis.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 13N17W to
12N20W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone continues from 12N20W
to 08N30W to 11N43W to 09N53W to 10N60W. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is from 03N-10N between 25W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Strong high pressure over the southeast U.S. and low pressure
associated with T.D. Sixteen near Nicaragua is supporting fresh
to strong easterly winds across the basin. A surface trough is
in the Straits of Florida. An upper level high is centered over
northern Mexico near 28N101W. Expect the surface trough to move
W into the SE Gulf over the next 24 hours with convection. Long
term, T.D. Sixteen is expected to move into the southern Gulf on
Sat and intensify, then reach the SE U.S. Gulf coast on Sunday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Tropical Depression Sixteen is expected to track NW across
Nicaragua and Honduras and reach the Yucatan peninsula late Fri.
Its intensity in the W Caribbean will be largely determined by
how much land interaction disrupts the cyclone center. An upper
low centered over W Cuba near 22N84W is enhancing clouds and
showers over a large area from 14N-22N between 77W-84W. Farther
east, a tropical wave is along 67W. The wave will move across
the central Caribbean through tonight. Moderate to occasionally
fresh trade winds persist elsewhere.

...HISPANIOLA...

Showers have diminished over Hispaniola during the past 6 hours.
A tropical wave E of the island will reach Dominican Republic in
12 hours, then move W of Haiti by Fri evening.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A tight pressure gradient over the W Atlantic N of 20N supports
20-30 kt easterly winds W of 70W. Widespread moderate convection
is E of Florida from 20N-30N between 72W-81W. A stationary front
reaches across the central Atlantic from 32N40W to 28N45W to
26N60W. Widely scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm of
the front. Broad surface ridging extends across the E Atlantic N
of 20N and E of 40W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Mundell
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