[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020458
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1258 AM EDT Mon Oct 2 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0415 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A strengthened pressure gradient across the far NW portion of the
SW North Atlc waters is generating strong to near gale NE winds
with gusts to gale force generally N of 30N W of 79W. The strong
gradient is expected to relax somewhat by Monday morning. See the
latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/
FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave extends from 05N21W to 15N19W moving W at 15-20
kt. The wave remains low amplitude and coincides with modest
troughing at 700 mb between 19W-27W. Isolated moderate convection
is from 08N-11N between 24W-26W.

A tropical wave extends from 07N45W to 21N50W moving W at 10-15
kt. The wave coincides with broad 700 mb troughing between 40W-
52W and continues to interact with an upper-level low centered
near 17N49W. Divergent upper-level winds on the east side of the
upper low are supporting a large area of scattered moderate
convection from 09N-21N between 35W-48W.

A tropical wave extends from 08N75W to 19N73W moving W at 10 kt.
This wave is also interacting with an upper level low centered
over the Windward Passage region near 19N75W. Scattered moderate
and isolated strong convection is from 07N-11N between 71W-
76W...with isolated moderate convection from 13N-18N between
74W-77W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from near 09N22W to 06N33W. The
Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 06N33W to 06N38W
to 09N45W to 07N52W. Besides the convection associated with the
tropical wave...no significant deep convection is occurring at
this time.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
An upper level low is centered over the northern Yucatan
peninsula near 21N90W that supports overall gentle to moderate
easterly winds across much of the basin this evening. To the
north of the upper level feature...a 1010 mb low is centered near
27N90W with a warm front extending NE to 29N86W becoming
stationary to the central Florida peninsula near 27N81W. Widely
scattered showers and isolated tstms are occurring N of 27N E of
91W in the vicinity of the front...with fresh to strong E-NE winds
noted generally along and N of the front. Farther SW...a surface
trough remains analyzed along the Mexico coastline from 23N98W to
18N94W. Isolated showers are possible within 75 nm either side of
the boundary. Looking ahead...the low will gradually weaken as the
warm front lifts north-northwestward through Monday night as surface
ridging builds across the SE CONUS...NE Gulf waters...and SW North
Atlc waters Monday. The building ridge will result in a stronger
pressure gradient and increasing E winds across much of the NE
Gulf. By Monday night into early Tuesday areal coverage of this
wind field is expected expand and influence the northern two-
thirds of the basin as fresh to strong easterly winds will
prevail.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A pair of upper level lows are noted on water vapor imagery this
evening over the basin and are driving much of the ongoing active
weather and convection. One upper level low is centered over the
Yucatan peninsula near 21N90W and supports a surface trough
extending from 15N87W to 20N87W providing focus for scattered
showers and strong tstms S of 20N W of 82W...including interior
portions of Central America from Costa Rica northward to Belize
and Guatemala. Farther east...the other upper level low is
centered over the Windward Passage region near 19N75W and
continues to work in tandem with a tropical wave analyzed along
75W providing scattered showers and widely scattered tstms between
66W-81W. Otherwise...moderate E-SE trades will persist through
Monday night.

...HISPANIOLA...
Currently the island remains under the influence of an upper
level low centered over the Windward Passage and a tropical wave
moving W in tandem with the upper level feature. The upper level
low will move SW ahead of the tropical wave and continue
generating scattered showers and isolated tstms across the region
through Monday night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Outside of the influence of the strengthened pressure gradient
across the far NW portion of the SW North Atlc generating strong
to near gale winds and gusts to gale force...a cold front extends
into the discussion area near 32N62W SW into a 1012 mb low near
28N70W then to 26N75W to the Florida coast near 27N80W. Widely
scattered showers and isolated tstms are occurring within 120 nm
either side of the front. To the south...a fractured piece
tropical wave energy is analyzed as a surface trough from 19N71W
across Hispaniola to 24N69W. Scattered showers and isolated tstms
are occurring from 18N-24N between 66W-73W. Otherwise...broad
surface ridging extends SW from a 1028 mb high centered E of the
Azores near 38N21W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN
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