[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020003
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
803 PM EDT Sun Oct 1 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A frontal boundary curves westward from 1012 mb low pres centered
near 29N71W to 27N74W to the vicinity of Vero Beach Florida near
29N81W. A strong pressure gradient N of the boundary and to the NW
of the low is generating near gale force winds with frequent gusts
to gale force, basically N of 30N and W of 79W. The gradient is
forecast to gradually relax in 18 hours as the boundary weakens
and slowly moves eastward. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave off the African coast extends from 15N17W to
05N19W moving W around 20 kt. The wave is embedded in an area of
deep- layer moisture and coincides with modest troughing at 700
mb. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the wave axis.

A tropical wave over the Central Atlantic extends from 21N49W to
07N44W moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave coincides with 700 mb
troughing and continues to interact with an upper-level low
centered near 17N48W. Divergent upper-level winds on the east
side of the upper low, are supporting a large area of scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection from 05N-20N, E of the
wave axis to 32W.

A tropical wave over the Central Caribbean extends from 18N72W to
08N74W moving W at 10 kt. This wave is also interacting with an
upper level low centered over the Windward Passage near 19N74W.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 10N-19N, E of the
wave axis to 68W. Puerto Rico is just within this area of
convection. More convection is possible over Puerto Rico for the
next 24 hours.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 11N16W to
07N20W to 07N26W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone continues
from 07N26W to 08N42W. The ITCZ resumes W of a tropical wave near
08N46W and extends to the coast of South America near 06N58W.
Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical wave section,
widely scattered moderate convection is along the coast of South
America from 06N-10N between 55W-60W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from Vero Beach Florida to N of Tampa
Florida to the NE Gulf of Mexico near 29N86W to 27N90W to Lake
Charles Louisiana. Widely scattered moderate convection is within
90 nm of the front. 30 kt NE surface winds are noted N of the
front over the NE Gulf of Mexico. Elsewhere, a surface trough is
over the SW Gulf from Tampico Mexico to Coatzacoalcos Mexico.
Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the trough. In the upper
levels, a small upper level low is centered over the Yucatan
Peninsula near 21N89W. A good amount of upper level moisture is
over the E Gulf E of 90W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Active convection will continue in conjunction with the tropical
wave crossing the central Caribbean as a weakening upper-level low
noted on water vapor imagery over the Windward Passage moves SW
generally in tandem with the wave during the next 24 hours.
Elsewhere...an upper-level low centered over the N Yucatan is
generating scattered moderate and isolated strong convection over
the NW Caribbean and Central America W of 80W. Otherwise...moderate
to fresh E-SE trades will persist through Monday, except for
light to moderate winds over the SW Caribbean south of 12N.

...HISPANIOLA...

Currently the island remains under the influence of an upper
level low centered over the Windward Passage and a tropical wave
moving W in tandem with the upper level feature. The upper level
low will move SW ahead of the tropical wave and continue
generating convection for the next 24 hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Outside of the influence of the strengthened pressure gradient
across the far NW portion of the SW North Atlc generating near
gale to gale force winds, broad surface ridging extends SW from a
1025 mb surface high centered W of the Azores near 35N31W. The
ridging dominates the Atlantic to the east of 60W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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