[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 282334
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
634 PM EST Tue Nov 28 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 09N14W to
08N21W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 08N21W to
01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is from 00N-15N between
20W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad mid to upper-level trough is over much of the basin. A
surface trough extends from 25N92W to 21N90W. Another trough
extends southeast from the Yucatan Channel into the west Caribbean.
Isolated showers are occurring south of 26N and west of 90W. Fair
weather prevails elsewhere. Moderate to locally fresh easterly
winds are noted in scatterometer data across the eastern half of
the basin, while gentle to moderate easterly winds prevail
elsewhere. Expect for the troughs to drift west merging with the
next cold front forecast to move off the Texas and Louisiana
coasts on late Wednesday into Thursday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Southwesterly flow aloft prevails over much of the western and
central Caribbean between a mid to upper-level trough over the
Gulf of Mexico and Florida peninsula and an upper-level
anticyclonic circulation prevails over the eastern Caribbean.
Moisture and cloudiness continues to advect northeastward from 83W
across Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and eastern Cuba. Scattered
moderate convection is occurring along and east of a surface
trough that extends from the Yucatan Channel to 16N82W to a 1008
mb surface low near 10N80W. Moderate to fresh trades will persist
east of 85W through Wednesday while moderate to fresh northwesterly
winds are expected generally west of 80W. As high pressure moves
off the eastern CONUS, trades across the south-central Caribbean
will increase briefly into fresh to strong levels on Wednesday
and weaken again on Thursday.

...HISPANIOLA...

Generally clear skies and fair weather conditions are across the
island as the influence of mid to upper-level ridging remains in
place over the region. Increasing cloudiness is expected through
tonight into Wednesday as the ridge slides eastward and southwesterly
flow aloft begins to influence the region.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A mid to upper-level low and associated troughing are noted on
water vapor imagery over the western Atlantic supporting a weak
surface trough from 30N50W to 27N63W. A shearline extends from the
trough to 25N75W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along
these boundaries mainly north of 25N. To the east, another
surface trough extends from 30N34W to 26N40W with no significant
convection. The remainder of the basin is under the influence of
a surface ridge, anchored by a 1020 mb high near 24N46W and a 1019
mb high near 25N21W. Expect during the next 24 hours for the
troughs to weaken while the high pressures will merge along 30W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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