[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281707
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1207 PM EST Tue Nov 28 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1615 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 09N13W to
08N21W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
08N21W to 03N40W to 02N51W. Scattered moderate convection is from
01N-13N between 18W-39W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
Broad middle to upper level troughing is over much of the Gulf
basin this afternoon with mid-level shortwave energy anchored over
northern Florida and a trough axis extending SW to another focused
area of mid-level energy over the central Gulf waters near 25N90W.
This southern-most shortwave supports a surface trough extending
from 25N91W to the NE tip of the Yucatan peninsula near 21N87W.
Widely scattered showers and isolated tstms are occurring from
21N-26N between 85W-89W generally E of the trough axis.
Otherwise...mostly moderate to occasional fresh E winds are noted
E of 90W and generally gentle to moderate S-SE winds are noted W
of 93W as a surface ridge axis extends across the lower
Mississippi River valley...NW Gulf...and much of Mexico. The
trough is expected to remain nearly stationary and weaken
gradually through Wednesday eventually merging with the next cold
front forecast to move off the Texas and Louisiana coasts on late
Wednesday into Thursday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
Southwesterly flow aloft prevails over much of the western and
central Caribbean between a middle to upper level trough over the
eastern Gulf of Mexico and Florida peninsula and an upper level
anticyclonic circulation anchored over the eastern Caribbean.
Moisture and cloudiness continues to advect E-NE from 83W across
Jamaica...eastern Cuba...and the central Caribbean this
afternoon. Scattered showers and isolated tstms are occurring
generally along and E of a surface trough extending from 19N85W to
15N81W and into a 1009 mb low embedded within the monsoon trough
axis near 10N80W. The main cluster of tstms associated with this
low is occurring S of 16N between 77W-83W. Farther east...mostly
clear skies prevail with only an isolated quick moving shower
possible across the Lesser Antilles through the afternoon hours
into the early evening. Otherwise...moderate to fresh trades will
persist E of 80W through Wednesday while moderate to fresh N-NW
winds are expected generally W of the surface trough axis. As high
pressure moves off the eastern CONUS...trades across the south-
central Caribbean will increase briefly into fresh to strong
levels Wednesday and weaken again on Thursday.

...HISPANIOLA...
Generally clear skies and fair weather conditions are across the
island this afternoon as the influence of middle to upper level
ridging remains in place over the region. Increasing cloudiness is
expected through tonight into Wednesday as the ridge slides
eastward and southwesterly flow aloft begins to influence the
region.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A middle to upper level low and associated troughing is noted on
water vapor imagery over the SW North Atlc...Florida peninsula...
and eastern Gulf of Mexico lending support to a weak surface
trough analyzed from 33N78W to the Florida coast near Cape
Canaveral. This trough remains embedded within the southern
periphery of a surface ridge anchored across New England. Farther
SE...southwesterly flow aloft along with a former frontal boundary
now analyzed as a surface trough extends from 31N53W to 27N60W to
25N70W to the central Bahamas near 24N75W. Scattered showers and
isolated tstms are occurring N of 27N between 40W-58W...and from
23N-28N between 58W-77W. The surface trough will gradually weaken
through Wednesday with a cold front currently entering the
discussion area near 32N65W that will sweep across the central
Atlc N of 25N between 30W-55W. Another cold front enters the
central Atlc near 32N36W extending southward to 28N37W becoming a
surface trough to 26N44W. Scattered showers and isolated tstms are
occurring N of 29N between 32W-40W. This front is expected to
continue weakening during the next 12 to 24 hours.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN
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