[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 272345
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
645 PM EST Mon Nov 27 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 08N14W to
07N18W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 07N18W to
07N47W. Scattered moderate convection is noted north of 04N to 20N
and east of 33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad mid to upper-level trough is over much of the basin. A
1014 mb surface low is entered near 22N88W with a surface trough
extending northwest from the low to 26N91W. Another portion of the
trough extends southeast across the Yucatan Channel into the west
Caribbean. Isolated showers are occurring from 23N- 26N between
80W-89W. Elsewhere, isolated showers are occurring south of 24N
and west of 95W in association with a surface trough paralleling
the coast of Mexico. Gentle to moderate northeasterly winds are
across the basin, with strongest area prevailing in the vicinity
of the low/trough. The low is expected to weaken through
Wednesday, with the remnant trough drifting westward and
eventually merging with the next cold front forecast to move off
the Texas and Louisiana coasts on Wednesday late morning into the
afternoon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Southwesterly flow aloft prevails over much of the western and
central Caribbean between a mid to upper-level trough over the
Gulf of Mexico and Florida peninsula and an upper-level
anticyclonic circulation anchored over the eastern Caribbean.
Moisture and cloudiness continues to advect northeastward from 83W
across Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and Cuba. Scattered showers
are occurring along and east of a surface trough extending from
the Yucatan Channel to 18N82W to a 1008 mb surface low near
10N78W. Moderate to fresh trades will persist east of 80W through
Wednesday while moderate to fresh northwesterly winds are
expected generally west of 80W.

...HISPANIOLA...

Generally clear skies and fair weather conditions are across the
island as the influence of mid to upper-level ridging remains in
place over the region. Drier conditions are expected to prevail
through tonight.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A mid to upper-level trough is noted on water vapor imagery over
the western Atlantic and extends a stationary front into the
discussion area near 32N59W. The front continues southwest to
27N67W and becomes a weak stationary front across the central
Bahamas to the coast of Cuba near 22N77W. Scattered showers and
are occurring north of 27N and west of 55W. The front is expected
to continue weakening through Tuesday as a surface ridge slides
off the Mid-Atlantic and southeast CONUS coastline. Across the
central Atlantic, a surface trough extends from 30N38W to 26N49W.
A 1009 mb low is centered east of the Azores near 38N23W with the
dissipating cold front extending into the discussion area near
31N21W. A surface trough extends from the front to 28N30W with no
significant convection.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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