[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271701
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1201 PM EST Mon Nov 27 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1615 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 07N13W to
08N20W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
08N20W to 06N33W to 07N43W to 06N47W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 01N-07N between 11W-17W. Widely scattered
moderate convection is from the Equator to 14N between 21W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
Broad middle to upper level troughing is over much of the Gulf
basin this afternoon with a shortwave trough noted in the vicinity
of 24N86W and another with axis extending from over Georgia near
32N83W to 28N91W. The southern-most shortwave supports a 1014 mb
low centered near 23N87W with a surface trough extending NW to
26N90W and SE across the Yucatan Channel region and into the
western Caribbean Sea. Isolated showers and tstms are occurring
from 23N-26N between 82W-89W generally N of the low. Elsewhere...
isolated showers are occurring S of 24N W of 95W in association
with a surface trough paralleling the coast of Mexico.
Otherwise...mostly gentle to moderate N-NE winds are noted E of
90W and gentle to moderate N-NE winds are noted W of 90W as
surface ridging remains anchored across the SE CONUS and NW Gulf
waters. The low is expected to weaken through Wednesday with the
remnant trough drifting westward and eventually merging with the
next cold front forecast to move off the Texas and Louisiana
coasts on Wednesday late morning into the afternoon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
Southwesterly flow aloft prevails over much of the western and
central Caribbean between a middle to upper level trough over the
Gulf of Mexico and Florida peninsula and an upper level
anticyclonic circulation anchored over the eastern Caribbean.
Moisture and cloudiness continues to advect northeastward from 83W
across Jamaica...the Cayman Islands...and Cuba this afternoon.
Scattered showers and isolated tstms are occurring generally along
and E of a surface trough extending from the Yucatan Channel near
22N85W SE to 17N82W into a 1007 mb low embedded within the monsoon
trough axis near 10N79W. A cluster of stronger tstms is occurring
in close proximity to the low S of 12N between 76W-80W. Farther
east...a fast moving surface trough is analyzed NE of the Leeward
Islands from 17N60W to 20N61W. Isolated showers are possible N of
17N E of 66W this afternoon and evening. Otherwise...moderate to
fresh trades will persist E of 80W through Wednesday while
moderate to fresh N-NW winds are expected generally W of 80W.

...HISPANIOLA...
Generally clear skies and fair weather conditions are across the
island this afternoon as the influence of middle to upper level
ridging remains in place over the region. Drier conditions are
expected to prevail through tonight.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A middle to upper level trough is noted on water vapor imagery
over the western North Atlc and extends a cold front into the
discussion area near 32N59W. The front continues SW to 29N70W and
becomes stationary across the central Bahamas to the coast of Cuba
near 23N80W. Scattered showers and widely scattered tstms are
occurring N of 27N between 50W-68W...and from 21N-30N between 68W-
80W. The front is expected to gradually weaken through Tuesday as
surface ridging slides off the Mid-Atlc and SE CONUS coastline.
Across the central Atlc...a remnant front continues to dissipate
as a surface trough now extends from 29N42W to 26N52W. Dissipation
is expected within the next 24 hours as two high pressure areas
merge in the vicinity of 25N49W through Tuesday. Lastly...a 1010
mb low is centered SE of the Azores near 37N25W with the
dissipating cold front extending into the discussion area near
32N21W. The front extends SW to 27N31W with isolated showers
possible within 60 nm either side of the front.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN
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