[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 262241
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
540 PM EST Sun Nov 26 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2215 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal sections of Guinea near
09N13W to 08N23W. The ITCZ continues from 08N23W to 07N30W 04N40W
05N49W, to the coast of Brazil and French Guiana, near 04N51W.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong from 03N to
06N between 33W and 39W, and from 06N to 07N between 33W and 36W.

An upper level trough extends from a cyclonic circulation center
that is near 34N25W, to 32N23W, 27N22W, 18N35W, 14N39W, and to
07N58W. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds and
isolated moderate rainshowers in the area that is bounded by the
line from 21N17W to 11N40W to 08N55W to 04N40W to 01N20W to
21N17W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough passes through the coastal waters of South
Carolina and Georgia, into the central Gulf of Mexico, toward the
Yucatan Peninsula. A stationary front passes through 31N79W to
30N81W to 29N83W. A dissipating stationary front continues from
29N83W to 29N87W and 29N90W. A surface trough extends from 28N85W,
to a 1015 mb low pressure center that is near 25N86W.
Precipitation: isolated moderate rainshowers from 26N to 28N
between 83W and 87W. rainshowers are possible elsewhere to the
south of the line 29N84W 26N90W 27N97W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level SW wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from 70W
westward. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the area from
70W eastward.

The SW end of a stationary front reaches Cuba near 22N78W. A
surface trough is along 80W/81W from 11N to 20N. Precipitation:
broken to overcast multilayered clouds and isolated moderate
rainshowers within 180 nm on either side of the line from 16N84W
at the coast of Honduras, beyond 21N78W in Cuba.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level SW wind flow is moving across the area.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: VFR, scattered
cumumlonimbus clouds. for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR.
Santo Domingo: VFR. La Romana and Punta Cana: VFR. Santiago:
VFR. Puerto Plata: VFR.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that E-to-SE wind flow
will move across Hispaniola during day one of the 48 hour forecast
period. The E-to-SE wind flow is part of a larger-scale area of
anticyclonic wind flow, from the Atlantic Ocean to Cuba. Day two
will consist of a broad inverted trough. The GFS MODEL forecast
for 500 mb shows that S-to-SW wind flow will move across
Hispaniola during the next 48 hours. Anticyclonic wind flow will
be moving across the area. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb
shows SW wind flow will move across the area during the next 48
hours. Hispaniola will be on the western side of a ridge.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the Atlantic Ocean from
40W westward.

A cold front passes through 32N59W to 28N65W. A stationary front
continues from 28N65W to 25N72W, to Cuba near 22N78W. A surface
trough is 120 nm to the SE of the stationary front between 67W and
76W in SE Cuba. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered
clouds and isolated moderate rainshowers within 240 nm on either
side of the line from 22N77W to 26N66W to 30N55W beyond 32N44W.
A central Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 32N45W to
30N46W to 27N51W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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