[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261721
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1221 PM EST Sun Nov 26 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 08N13W to
04N22W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 04N22W to
the South American coast near 01N50W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 00N-13N between 20W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1014 mb surface low is centered over the southeast Gulf near
25N86W, with trough extending from the low to 29N84W. Scattered
showers are noted with the low. Moderate northerly winds are west
of the low/trough over the eastern Gulf, while moderate east
winds are east of these features. To the north, a cold front has
entered the northern Gulf waters extending from 30N85W to 28N96W.
No significant convection is related to this front at this time.
Expect during the next 24 hours for the cold front to drift south
while weakening. The low/trough will drift south.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends from central Cuba near 21N78W to
18N82W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are within 120 nm on
either side of the front. Moderate winds are noted in the vicinity
of the front. A surface trough is over the southwest Caribbean
with an axis extending from 18N80W to 13N80W with scattered
showers. To the south, the proximity of the monsoon trough is
enhancing scattered moderate convection south of 11N between 77W-
81W. Fair weather and moderate easterly trades cover the
remainder of the basin. Over the next 24 hours the front will
transition into a surface trough with ongoing showers and
thunderstorms. Little change is expected elsewhere.

...HISPANIOLA...

Isolated showers could develop in the afternoon hours across the
island due to daytime heating and high moisture content in the
atmosphere. Little change is expected during the next 24 hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is along 31N and west of 78W with no convection. To
the east, another cold front extends from 31N60 to 24N73W, then
transitions to a stationary front across the Bahamas and entering
the northwest Caribbean. Scattered showers are noted within 150 nm
on either side of the fronts. A pre-frontal trough extends from
25N67W to 20N75W. The tail end of a cold front enters the central
Atlantic near 31N45W and extends to 26N54W. A 1019 mb surface high
is centered southeast of the front near 27N45W. A broad area of
low pressure is centered near 32N26W with an associated surface
trough extending from 30N19W to 22N26W. Large swell continues
between the trough and the low. During the next 24 hours, the
remainder of the west Atlantic cold front will become stationary.
The central Atlantic front will moving east. Large swell will
subside over the east Atlantic.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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