[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070556
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1256 AM EST Tue Nov 7 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Newly upgraded Tropical Storm Rina is centered near 30.4N 49.9W
at 07/0300 UTC or about 770 nm E of Bermuda and about 1220 nm WSW
of the Azores moving N at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 1010 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with
gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from
30N to 32N between 47W and 50W. See the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC
for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from Guinea Bissau on the African
coast near 12N15W to 10N18W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone
axis continues from 10N18W to 08N27W to 06N40W to the coast of
South America at 06N54W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is present within 180 nm either side of a line from
18N17W to 05N40W. Widely scattered moderate convection is observed
from 06N to 08N between 40W and 57W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1019 mb high is centered over the Gulf of Mexico just SE of the
Mouth of the Mississippi near 28.5N88.5W. The high is maintaining
a benign weather pattern over the basin. Light to gentle anticyclonic
winds generally prevail over the Gulf, with the exception that
moderate return flow from the SSE has set up N of 21N and W of 95W
ahead of the next frontal boundary which is currently over
central Texas. In the upper levels, an upper-level ridge crosses
the Gulf from the bay of campeche to the Florida Big Bend. Strong
subsidence associated with this feature remains over the entire
Gulf. A cold front is still expected to slowly move SE from the
Texas and Louisiana coasts Wed evening through Thu morning
accompanied by showers and thunderstorms.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak surface trough crosses the NW Caribbean from NE Honduras
near 15N84W to S of Cuba near 19N82W. This trough has no
significant convection associated with it. Scattered showers are
within 90 nm of the trough. Farther S, the monsoon trough extends
over the far SW Caribbean from the Eastern Pacific along the coast
of Panama to NW Colombia near 09N76W. Isolated thunderstorms
associated with the trough are confined to land over Panama. Low
pressure over northern South America and high pressure over the
western Atlc is maintaining light to moderate cyclonic wind flow
over the basin. An upper-level trough extends NE over the NW
Caribbean from NE Honduras to NE Cuba. Upper level diffluence E of
the trough axis is producing scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms over the Windward Passage, Hispaniola, Puerto Rico,
and the Virgin Islands. Expect more showers and thunderstorms over
the SW Caribbean during the next 48 hours as the monsoon trough
remains in place. Convection over the eastern Caribbean will shift
eastward as the upper-level trough over the NW Caribbean slowly
progresses eastward.

...HISPANIOLA...

A surface trough extends from the S Bahamas to central
Hispaniola. Upper level diffluence is also aiding convection over
the island. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over
Hispaniola should slowly taper off during the next 48 hours and
the upper- level trough over the NW Caribbean moves eastward
slowly and weakens.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the special features section for more information on newly
upgraded Tropical Storm Rina. Otherwise, a surface trough extends
over the western Atlc from the Dominican Republic near 19N71W to N
of the central Bahamas near 25N74W. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is found mainly N of Puerto Rico and
Hispaniola in an area bounded by 19N64W to 20N73W to 23N71W to
19N64W. An upper-level trough is over the central Atlantic from
31N42W to 17N48W. Scattered moderate convection is taking place
from 23N to 27N between 46W and 47W. Otherwise, a 1037 mb high
centered over the central Atlantic near 32N34W is maintaining fair
weather over the basin E of 60W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
McElroy
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