[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

EMWIN Server emwin at nashvilleweather.net
Mon Nov 6 18:01:58 CST 2017


AXNT20 KNHC 070001
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
701 PM EST Mon Nov 6 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Nineteen is centered near 29.9N 50.0W at
06/2100 UTC or about 773 nm E of Bermuda and about 1238 nm WSW of
the Azores moving NNE at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure
is 1013 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to
40 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 28N-31N between 47W-
50W. See the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 12N15W to
09N20W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
09N20W to 06N40W to 06N58W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is from 06N-11N between 18W-28W. Widely scattered
moderate convection is elsewhere from 02N-11N between 16W-40W, and
from 03N-08N between 40W-59W. Widely scattered moderate convection
is also near Trinidad from 08N-12N between 59W-65W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 2100 UTC, a 1019 mb high is centered over the north central
Gulf of Mexico near 29N89W. 5-10 kt anticyclonic winds are going
around the high with fair weather. In the upper levels, an upper
level high is centered over the W Gulf near 25N94W. Strong
subsidence is over the entire Gulf. Expect a cold front to emerge
off the Texas and Louisiana coasts Wed evening with convection.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

As of 2100 UTC, a surface trough is over the NW Caribbean from
20N82W to N Nicaragua near 14N94W. Scattered showers are within 90
nm of the trough. Further S, the eastern extent of the E Pacific
monsoon trough is over the SW Caribbean along 09N between Costa
Rica and N Colombia. Scattered showers are over Costa Rica and
Panama. 10-15 kt tradewinds are over the remainder of the
Caribbean. In the upper levels, an upper level trough is over the
NW Caribbean with axis from central Cuba to NE Honduras. Upper
level diffluence is E of the trough axis producing scattered
showers over the Windward Passage, Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, and
the Virgin Islands. Expect more showers over the SW Caribbean, and
the E Caribbean over the next 48 hours.

...HISPANIOLA...

A surface trough extends from the S Bahamas to central Hispaniola.
In addition upper level diffluence is over the island. Scattered
moderate convection is over NW Hispaniola. Scattered showers are
over the remainder of the island. Expect little change over the
next 48 hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See special features for information about Tropical Depression
Nineteen. Otherwise, in the W Atlantic, a surface trough extends
from 26N74W to the S Bahamas to central Hispaniola near 19N71W.
Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm of the trough. A
1017 mb high is over the central Atlantic near 25N58W. Of note in
the upper levels, an upper level trough is over the W Atlantic
with axis from 31N71W to central Cuba near 22N77W. Upper level
diffluence is E of the trough axis producing isolated moderate
convection from 20N-26N between 60W-70W. Another upper level
trough is over the central Atlantic from 31N44W to 21N43W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 22N-26N between 44W-47W.
Expect the W Atlantic upper level trough to remain quasi-
stationary over the next 24 hours, while the central Atlantic
upper level trough moves E.

For additional information pleasevisit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa

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