[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 052319
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
619 PM EST Sun Nov 5 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A mid to upper level short-wave trough between 45W and 55W
supports a 1012 mb low centered near 29N52W. The well-defined low
pressure system is generating scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms primarily N of 26N between 45W and 52W. Environmental
conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for the development
of a tropical or subtropical cyclone during the next few days
while the low moves northward. Conditions are forecast to become
unfavorable for development by Thursday when the low will be
moving over the cold waters of the far north Atlantic. This system
has a medium chance of tropical cyclone development within the
next 48 hours.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 13N17W to
10N20W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 10N20W to
07N58W. Scattered moderate convection is observed within 100 nm on
either side of the ITCZ east of 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge anchored by a stationary 1020 mb surface high
centered near 30N88W. This system covers the entire basin.
Scatterometer data depicts a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow
across the basin. The ridge is forecast remain nearly stationary
across the northern Gulf waters through late Wednesday when a
cold front is expected to emerge off the Texas and Louisiana
coast.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The main feature in the basin continue to be a surface trough that
extends across the western Caribbean from 20N78W to 16N84W.
Scattered showers are noted between 78W-85W. To the south, the
EPAC's monsoon trough extends along 10N between 75W-82W supporting
scattered moderate convection is this area. Mid-level diffluent
flow supports isolated showers across Hispaniola, Puerto Rico and the
Leeward Islands. Expect for showers to continue across the western
Caribbean. A similar weather pattern is expected elsewhere.

...HISPANIOLA...

Isolated showers are occurring due to patches of shallow moisture
moving across the northern Caribbean waters. A mid to upper level
trough will move over the island from the west during the next 48
hours, resulting in the development of showers and thunderstorms.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features section above for details about the
surface low located in the central Atlantic. In the western
portion of the basin, a 1013 mb surface low is centered near
27N75W. A surface trough extends from the low to 31N75W. Isolated
showers are noted near the low and trough. To the southeast of
the low/trough, a diffluent flow aloft supports scattered showers
between 66W-77W. The remainder of the eastern Atlantic is under
the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1033 mb high
centered northeast of the Azores.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA

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