[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051741 CCA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1129 AM EST Sun Nov 5 2017

Corrected to add Special Features Section...

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A middle to upper level short-wave trough between 45W and 55W
supports a 1012 mb low near 29N51W and an associated trough that
extends from the low to 23N50W. The well-defined low pressure
system is located about 695 nm east-southeast of Bermuda where
it is generating scattered showers and isolated tstms primarily
N of 23N between 45W and 52W. Environmental conditions are
expected to be marginally conducive for the development of a
tropical or subtropical cyclone during the next few days while
the low moves northward to north-northeastward. Conditions are
forecast to become unfavorable for development by Thursday when
the low will be moving over the cold waters of the far north
Atlantic. There is a medium chance of tropical cyclone
development within the next 48 hours.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 12N17W to
10N20W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
10N20W to 06N40W to 07N58W. Scattered moderate convection is from
01N-09N E of 45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge anchored by a 1020 mb high centered near 30N86W
continues to cover the entire basin and provides for light to
gentle NE to E flow E of 90W, except for moderate winds in the
Straits of Florida and the Yucatan Channel. Latest scatterometer
data show gentle to moderate SSE winds W of 90W. The ridge is
forecast remain nearly stationary across the NNE Gulf waters
through Wednesday night when a cold front is expected to emerge
off the Texas and Louisiana coast.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The main feature in the basin continue to be a surface trough
associated with a 1013 mb low located within 90 nm off the coast
of E Honduras. This area of low pressure prevails underneath a
region of middle to upper level diffluence, which along with
shallow moisture support scattered heavy showers and tstms W of
Jamaica from 14N-21N between 78W-82W and within 90 nm off the
coast of E Honduras, Nicaragua and Costa Rica. The EPAC monsoon
trough extends across Panama and Costa Rica to a 1011 mb low off
the NW coast of Colombia near 10N75W and generate scattered
showers and tstms to the SW Caribbean S of 12N W of 75W. Middle
level diffluent flow between a small ridge N of Puerto Rico and
a broad ridge over the central tropical Atlc support scattered
showers and tstms across most of the Leeward Islands and
isolated showers elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles. Patches of
shallow moisture move across Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, thus
supporting isolated showers there. The low is forecast to
dissipate by Monday morning, however showers will continue in
the NW basin. No major changes expected elsewhere.

...HISPANIOLA...

Isolated showers are occurring this afternoon due to patches of
shallow moisture moving across the northern Caribbean waters.
However, dry air subsidence and strong shear will hinder the
development of deep convection through Monday night. A middle to
upper level trough will then move over the Island from the W,
resulting in the development of showers and tstms.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The main feature in the basin is an area of low pressure located
in the northern-central Atlc forecast waters. See the special
featuressection for further details. A middle to upper level
trough between 70W and 80W with upper level base over northern
Central America continue to support a 1015 mb low centered E of
the Bahamas near 27N74W with associated trough extending from
31N74W to the low to 24N74W. The remainder of the eastern Atlc
is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1034 mb
high centered NE of the Azores Islands.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
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