[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161805
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT Tue May 16 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is over the central tropical Atlantic with axis
extending from 07N30W to 01N30W, moving westward at about 15 kt.
The wave has a subtle signal in satellite imagery, but still
appears in model diagnostics. Saharan dry air and dust in the wave
environment limit convection to isolated showers within 90 nm
either side of its axis.

A tropical wave is over the western tropical Atlantic with axis
extending from 09N51W to 01N50W, moving westward at around 15 kt.
The wave continue to be difficult to locate in satellite imagery,
but still appears in model diagnostics. Unfavorable wind shear,
dry air and dust in the wave environment inhibit convection at
the time.

A tropical wave extends from the south-central Caribbean near
12N68W to inland Venezuela and eastern Colombia. Unfavorable wind
shear across this region of the Caribbean limit convection to
isolated showers S of 12N between 64W and 70W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough crosses the western African coast near 08N13W
to 06N21W. The ITCZ begins near 06N21W and extends to 03N29W,
then resumes west of a tropical wave near 03N35W to 04N50W. Aside
from the convection related to the tropical waves, scattered
showers are within 120 nm of the ITCZ between 20W and 30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Very stable conditions are across the entire basin being supported
by middle to upper level ridging and deep layer dry air. Broad
surface high pressure over the mid-Atlantic states and the SE
CONUS extends a ridge axis SW to the eastern Gulf of Mexico and
provide gentle to moderate return flow. This pattern is forecast
to continue through Thursday, except that winds will become fresh
to strong N of 24N W of 94W as the pressure gradient tightens
due to an area of low pressure building in the central and
southern plains.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1011 mb low pressure developed earlier this morning along a
surface trough in the western Caribbean that extends from southern
Cuba near 22N80W to the low near 20N82W to 15N81W SW to coastal
waters of southern Nicaragua near 11N83W. A middle to upper level
diffluent environment between a trough in the W Atlc with base
near Honduras and a ridge to the east along with abundant moisture
support heavy showers and scattered tstms N of 15N between 70W and
77W, including eastern Cuba, the Windward Passage and Haiti.
Scattered heavy showers and tstms are also off the coast of
Colombia from 10N to 15N between 74W and 77W. Isolated showers
are within 120 nm either side of the surface trough S of 16N.
Otherwise, a tropical wave moving inland Venezuela and Colombia
support isolated showers in the S-SE basin S of 13N. See tropical
waves section for further details. The upper level features
generating the diffluent flow aloft will be nearly stationary
during the next three days, which will lead to the continuation of
showers for the north-central Caribbean. Hispaniola, eastern Cuba
and Jamaica will receive numerous showers with the potential for
flooding and mud slides.

HISPANIOLA...

A middle to upper level diffluent environment between a trough in
the W Atlc with base near Honduras and a ridge to the east along
with abundant moisture support heavy showers and scattered tstms
in the north-central Caribbean N of 15N between 70W and 77W,
including the Windward Passage, Haiti and western Dominican
Republic. The upper level features generating the diffluent flow
aloft will be nearly stationary during the next three days, which
will lead to the continuation of showers for Hispaniola with the
potential for generating flooding and mud slides.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A middle to upper level trough along the W Atlc support a
dissipating stationary front that extends from 30N63W to 27N80W.
Diffluence aloft between the trough and ridging in the central
Atlc support scattered showers N of 20N between 50W and 77W.
Otherwise, the remainder basin is under the influence of a surface
ridge that supports fair weather.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
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