[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161053
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
653 AM EDT Tue May 16 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 29W/30W from 10N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Convective
precipitation: any precipitation is in the ITCZ.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 49W/50W from 11N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Convective
precipitation: any precipitation is in the ITCZ.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 68W from 13N southward,
moving westward 15 knots. Convective precipitation:
nothing significant.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 80W from 13N southward,
moving westward 15 knots. Convective precipitation:
the wave is moving into the area of the Monsoon Trough. Widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong from 12N southward from 76W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W to 06N14W. The ITCZ continues from 06N14W to
04N16W 03N26W 03N38W and into NE Brazil near 03N52W. Convective
precipitation: Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from
01N to 05N between 19W and 36W. Isolated moderate from 07N southward
from 16W eastward, and from 05N to 07N between 37W and 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 60W WESTWARD, ACROSS
FLORIDA, INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO, INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO...

A deep layer trough is digging through 32N66W in the Atlantic
Ocean, to 30N78W, to 27N82W in Florida, across NW Cuba, into
central Honduras. A cold front passes through 32N60W to 31N62W.
The front is stationary from 31N62W, to 27N73W. The front is warm
from 27N73W, to the NW Bahamas near 27N79W, across south
Florida near 26N81W, to 24N85W in the Gulf of Mexico. A surface
trough is in the easternmost part of the Gulf of Mexico along 83W
from 26N to 31N. Convective precipitation: broken to overcast
multilayered clouds and widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong, in the Atlantic Ocean, from 20N northward between 40W and
80W. Upper level NW wind flow spans the rest of the Gulf of
Mexico, with comparatively drier air in subsidence.

VISIBILITY IN MILES, AND WEATHER, FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE
U.S.A., FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOUISIANA: 3 to 5 in the coastal plains. 2 miles or less and mist
in the SW corner. MISSISSIPPI: 1 or less and mist in Pascagoula.
ALABAMA: 1 or less in Gulf Shores. FLORIDA: 1 or less at the Tampa
Executive Airport.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow is moving from northern
sections of South America, toward Nicaragua and Honduras, and
then toward Cuba/Jamaica, Hispaniola, and beyond Puerto Rico.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow is in the NW corner of the
Caribbean Sea, moving into the area from the Gulf of Mexico.

A surface trough extends from Andros Island in the Bahamas,
across central Cuba to 19N81W in the NW corner of the Caribbean
Sea, curving to 15N82W and 12N82W. Convective precipitation:
numerous strong from Jamaica, across SE Cuba for a bit of time,
and into the waters that are between Jamaica, Cuba, and Haiti, in
the Windward Passage.

The monsoon trough is along 09N81W in central Panama, NW to
southern sections of Honduras and Guatemala. Convective
precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong inland
and in the coastal waters of Central America from Panama tonorthern sections of Nicaragua.

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended
at 16/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are a TRACE in
Guadeloupe.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level SW wind flow is moving across Hispaniola. Numerous
strong convective precipitation is to the west of Hispaniola,
between Jamaica and SE Cuba. It is possible that this
precipitation may reach Hispaniola, if everything remains intact.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: MVFR. for the
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Santo Domingo: VFR. few cumulonimbus clouds.
La Romana and Punta Cana: VFR. Santiago: VFR. Puerto Plata: MVFR.
ceiling 1600 feet. few cumulonimbus clouds.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that SW wind flow will
move across the area during the next 48 hours. A N-to-S oriented
ridge will be present along 70W. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500
mb shows that SW wind flow will move across the area during the
next 48 hours. Anticyclonic wind flow, from an east-to-west
oriented ridge, will span the Caribbean Sea. The GFS MODEL
forecast for 700 mb shows that an east-to-west oriented ridge,
that will reach Hispaniola from the Atlantic Ocean, will send
southerly wind flow across Hispaniola during the next 48 hours.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A middle level-to-upper level trough passes through 32N29W, to
24N33W, to 17N35W, and 10N42W. A cold front passes through 32N26W
to 26N33W. The cold front is dissipating from 26N33W and 22N43W.
Convective precipitation: isolated moderate within 90 nm on
either side of the line that passes through 32N26W 27N34W 22N50W.

A surface ridge extends from a 1025 mb high pressure center that
is near 37N17W, through 32N21W 25N30W, and 22N40W. A second
surface ridge extends from a 1027 mb high pressure center that is
near 36N39W, through 32N41W, to 26N44W and 24N70W.

For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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