[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151100
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 AM EDT Mon May 15 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 22W/23W from 09N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Convective
precipitation: isolated moderate from 01N to 06N between 20W and
25W, in the ITCZ.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 42W/43W from 09N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Convective
precipitation: isolated moderate from 08N southward between
40W and 46W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 57W from 10N southward,
moving westward 15 knots. Convective precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong from 05N inland to 08N
between 56W and 60W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 74W/75W from 15N southward,
moving westward 15 knots. The wave is moving through an area of
diffluent upper level wind flow. Convective precipitation:
scattered moderate to strong in Colombia along the western side of
Lake Maracaibo from 09N to 11N, and from 08N to 10N between 74W
and 75W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal border sections of
Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 05N21W. The ITCZ continues from
05N21W to 03N29W 03N39W and 03N50W, near the coast of Brazil.
Convective precipitation: scattered moderate to strong from 03N to
the coast of Africa between 06W and 08W. Widely scattered moderate
to isolated strong from 02N to 06N between 28W and 32W, and along
the coast of South America from 05N to 07N between 50W and 56W.

...DISCUSSION...

...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 60W WESTWARD, ACROSS
FLORIDA, INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO, INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO...

A deep layer trough is digging through 32N68W in the Atlantic
Ocean, to 28N74W, into central Florida, and then weakening and
merging with broad upper level NW wind flow in the Gulf of Mexico.
The trough supports a cold front that passes just to the west of
Bermuda, to 28N74W. The front becomes stationary from 28N74W,
to the area of the NW Bahamas, to the Florida Keys, to 24N87W in
the SE Gulf of Mexicoto the north central coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula. A surface trough is along 31N71W 29N79W in the Atlantic
Ocean. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water
vapor imagery to the NW of the line that passes through 32N65W
25N80W 19N96W. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate to
widely scattered moderate in the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward
between 55W and the line 30N70W 26N80W. Upper level NW wind flow
spans much of the Gulf of Mexico in the area of subsidence.

Upper level SW wind flow is moving from the SW corner of the Gulf
of Mexico, across the Yucatan Peninsula, beyond the Straits of
Florida.

VISIBILITY IN MILES, AND WEATHER, FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE
U.S.A., FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: 3 to 5, with some areas of 1 mile or less, with mist,
in the areas that are adjacent to the NW of the Houston
metropolitan area, and in the upper Texas Gulf coast. LOUISIANA: 3
or less, with some areas of 1 mile, haze and mist, in the coastal
plains. MISSISSIPPI: 3 or less in Pascagoula. ALABAMA: 3 or less
in the Mobile metropolitan area. FLORIDA: 1 mile or less in the NW
part of the Panama City metropolitan area.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level anticyclonic circulation center is about 150 nm off
the NE coast of Nicaragua. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow
spans the Caribbean Sea from 83W eastward.

Upper level SW wind flow moves from the Gulf of Honduras across
and beyond Cuba.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the SW corner of the area,
from 13N southward from 76W westward.

A surface trough is along 81W/82W from 11N to 22N. Convective
precipitation: scattered moderate to strong from 16N to 17N
between 78W and 80W, to the south of Jamaica. Isolated to widely
scattered moderate across Jamaica, and in the coastal waters.

The monsoon trough is along 09N75W 09N82W, and beyond NW
Nicaragua. Convective precipitation: numerous strong in Costa Rica
from 10N northward, into the southern sections of Nicaragua.
Earlier numerous strong in northern sections of Nicaragua and
eastern parts of Honduras has been weakening with time. Widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong from land to 19N between 86W
and 88W in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea.

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended
at 15/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.02 in
Guadeloupe.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level W wind flow is moving across Hispaniola. light rain is
inland, and possibe rainshowers are in the coastal waters.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: MVFR. for the
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Santo Domingo: MVFR. La Romana: VFR. Punta
Cana: light rain. MVFR. ceiling 1800 feet. Santiago: VFR. Puerto
Plata: MVFR. ceiling 1600 feet.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that first W wind flow
will move across the area, for about 6 hours or so. Expect SW wind
flow for the rest of the 48-hour forecast period. A ridge will be
present in the southern half of the Caribbean Sea. The GFS MODEL
forecast for 500 mb shows that SW wind flow will move across the
area during the next 48 hours. Anticyclonic wind flow, from a
west-to-east oriented ridge, will span the Caribbean Sea. The GFS
MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that an east-to-west oriented
ridge, that will reach Hispaniola from the Atlantic Ocean, will
send southerly wind flow across Hispaniola during the next 48
hours.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A middle level-to-upper level trough passes through 32N42W, to
23N45W, to 16N50W, and 10N55W. A dissipating cold front passes
through 32N32W to 28N40W and 26N45W. Comparatively drier air in
subsidence is apparent in the Caribbean Sea from 73W eastward,
and in the Atlantic Ocean from 10N to 20N between 40W and 60W.
Convective precipitation: isolated moderate within 700 nm to the
NW of the line that passes through 32N18W 23N24W 10N37W.

A surface ridge passes through the Madeira Archipelago, to 27N26W,
24N42W, 25N55W, to 22N70W.

For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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