[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150604
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
204 AM EDT Mon May 15 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is
listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-
MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are forecast
for the area that is called: AGADIR.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 21W/22W from 09N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Convective
precipitation: warming cloud top temperatures and dissipating
precipitation from 07N southward between 20W and 25W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 40W/41W from 06N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Convective
precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 05N southward between
40W and 46W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 54W/55W from 08N
southward, moving westward 15 knots. Convective precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 02N inland to
07N between 56W and 58W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 72W/73W from 15N
southward, moving westward 15 knots. The wave is moving through an
area of diffluent upper level wind flow. Convective precipitation:
scattered moderate to isolated strong within a 30 nm radius of
11.5N74W at the coast of Colombia, and along the western side of
Lake Maracaibo from 09N to 11N.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal border sections of
Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 06N19W. The ITCZ continues from
05N24W to 03N38W 02N43W and 02N51W at the coast of Brazil.
Convective precipitation: scattered to numerous strong from 04N to
06N between 03W and 09W. scattered moderate to isolated strong
from 02N to 04N between 11W and 14W. Isolated moderate to locally
strong elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 65W WESTWARD, ACROSS
FLORIDA, INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO, INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO...

A deep layer trough is digging through 32N70W in the Atlantic
Ocean, to 28N75W, across central, and then weakening from the east
central Gulf of Mexico, to the middle Texas Gulf coast. The
trough is supporting a cold front that passes through 32N69W
to the southeastern corner of Florida, into the SE Gulf of Mexico,
and to the Yucatan Peninsula. Comparatively drier air in
subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery to the NW of the
line that passes through 32N66W 26N79W 22N90W 20N97W. Convective
precipitation: isolated moderate in the Atlantic Ocean from 20N
northward between 55W and the line 32N66W 27N80W.

Upper level SW wind flow is moving from the SW corner of the Gulf
of Mexico, across the Yucatan Peninsula, beyond the Straits of
Florida.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level anticyclonic circulation center is about 150 nm off
the NE coast of Nicaragua. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow
spans the Caribbean Sea from 83W eastward.

Upper level SW wind flow moves from the Gulf of Honduras across
and beyond Cuba.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the SW corner of the area,
from 13N southward from 75W westward.

A surface trough is along 19N79W 16N81W 12N83W. Convective
precipitation: scattered moderate to strong from 16N to 18N
between 76W and 80W, to the south of Jamaica, and reaching
southern coastal sections of Jamaica.

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended
at 15/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.02 in
Guadeloupe.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level W wind flow is moving across Hispaniola.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: MVFR. for the
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR. few cumulonimbus clouds. Santo
Domingo: VFR. La Romana and Punta Cana: VFR. Santiago and Puerto
Plata: VFR.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that first W wind flow
will move across the area, for about 6 hours or so. Expect SW wind
flow for the rest of the 48-hour forecast period. A ridge will be
present in the southern half of the Caribbean Sea. The GFS MODEL
forecast for 500 mb shows that SW wind flow will move across the
area during the next 48 hours. Anticyclonic wind flow, from a
west-to-east oriented ridge, will span the Caribbean Sea. The GFS
MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that an east-to-west oriented
ridge, that will reach Hispaniola from the Atlantic Ocean, will
send southerly wind flow across Hispaniola during the next 48
hours.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A middle level-to-upper level trough passes through 32N42W, to
23N45W, to 16N50W, and 10N55W. A dissipating cold front passes
through 32N34W to 26N45W. Comparatively drier air in subsidence
is apparent in the Caribbean Sea from 74W eastward. Convective
precipitation: isolated moderate within 700 nm to the NW of the
line that passes through 32N12W 24N22W 19N30W 12N48W.

A surface ridge extends from a 1027 mb high pressure center that
is near 34N16W, to 26N30W, 23N45W, to a 1021 mb high pressure
center that is near 26N53W, and to 27N70W.

For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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