[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141739
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
139 PM EDT Sun May 14 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1600 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A gale is forecast along the coast of Morocco in the region named
Agadir this afternoon and tonight. The gale will end Monday
morning. Please see the Meteo France marine bulletin under
www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-
marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2 for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is over the far eastern tropical Atlantic with an
axis extending from 10N18W to 01N18W, moving westward at about 15
kt. This wave has a well defined satellite signature, and is
accompanied by a large surge of tropical moisture. Scattered
moderate convection is within 150 nm of either side of the wave
axis.

Another eastern Atlantic tropical wave has an axis from 10N35W to
00N36W, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. The northern portion of
the wave is difficult to locate in satellite imagery due to dry
air. However, a peak in low to mid level moisture is noted in TPW
imagery as well as cyclonic curvature in satellite imagery along
the southern portion of the wave. Scattered moderate convection is
within 210 nm of either side of the wave axis, S of 05N.

A tropical wave is over the central Atlantic with an axis
extending from 10N48W to 00N50W, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt.
It is difficult to locate this wave on satellite imagery, with a
peak in low to mid level moisture noted in TPW data. Isolated
moderate convection is from 00N to 06N, within 180 nm west of the
wave axis, including just inland over S. America.

A tropical wave extends from the Central Caribbean near 17N69W to
Venezuela, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Dry air over the
Caribbean is limiting convection over that portion of the wave.
However, the thunderstorm activity over Venezuela makes this wave
trackable with satellite imagery. This wave is at the leading
edge of an increase in low to mid level moisture.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough crosses the western African coast near 14N17W
to 10N19W to 06N24W. The ITCZ begins near 06N24W and continues to
04N34W, then resumes east of a tropical wave near 02N38W to 03N49W.
Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves, scattered
moderate convection is within 300 nm S of the monsoon trough, and
within 210 nm of either side of the ITCZ axis.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from south Florida near Marco Island, to
24N85W, then transitions to a stationary front to 21N94W. A pre-
frontal trough extends from the Florida Straits to the Yucatan
Channel. Scattered thunderstorms are within 90 nm of the trough
axis. High pressure north of the front supports mainly moderate
northerly winds over the eastern Gulf, and moderate east to
southeast winds over the western Gulf. Over the next 24 hours, the
front will dissipate across the southern Gulf. High pressure will
build over the northeastern Gulf and southeastern United States.
Scattered thunderstorms will remain likely in the unstable
airmass south of the weakening front through tonight.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough is developing over the western Caribbean south of
20N along about 81W, and is supporting scattered moderate
convection within 90 nm of a line from 19N78W to 13N82W. A pre-
frontal trough extends from the western tip of Cuba to near 20N86W
supporting numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms within 60
nm of the trough axis. A tropical wave is over the central
Caribbean void of convection. Please see the tropical waves
section for details. Mainly moderate trades cover the Caribbean,
except fresh near convection. Over the next 24 hours the two
surface troughs over the west and northwest Caribbean will merge
and continue to support showers and thunderstorms.

HISPANIOLA...

Isolated showers and thunderstorms will mainly occur in the
higher terrain this afternoon, diminishing around sunset. Expect
an increase in shower and thunderstorm coverage Monday as moisture
increases over the area.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Three tropical waves are moving across the tropical Atlantic.
Please refer to the tropical waves section above for details. A
cold front is over the SW N Atlantic and extends over the area of
discussion from 31N75W to south Florida. Numerous showers and
scattered thunderstorms are within 210 nm southeast of the front.
A weak surface trough extends from 31N79W to 29N82W supporting
isolated showers and thunderstorms. A nearly stationary weak area
of high pressure of 1019 mb is centered near 24N60W. Another cold
front enters the area of discussion near 31N31W and extends to
28N45W to 25N53W and is then dissipating stationary to 25N58W. No
significant convection is noted with this front. High pressure
centered near 34N14W dominates the remainder of the eastern
Atlantic, and will support gale conditions near the Morocco coast
through tonight. Please see the special features section for more
details.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

Latto
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