[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141112
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
712 AM EDT Sun May 14 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 16W from 10N southward,
moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Convective precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong from 05N to 10N between 15W
and 20W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 33W from 10N southward,
moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Convective precipitation:
scattered to numerous strong from 01S to the Equator between 33W
and 37W. widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from the
Equator to 05N between 30W and 37W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 45W from 10N southward,
moving westward 15 knots. Convective precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong from 07N southward between
38W and 46W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 72W/73W from 16N
southward, moving westward 15 knots. The wave is moving through
an area of upper level anticyclonic wind flow. Convective
precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong from 16N to
southern parts of Jamaica between 77W and 78W. Rainshowers are
possible from 13N to Haiti between 72W and 76W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal border sections of
Senegal and Mauritania near 16N17W to 09N20W and 05N26W. The ITCZ
continues from 05N26W to 04N32W 06N44W and 06N54W at the coast of
Suriname. Convective precipitation: scattered moderate to strong
from 04N to 06N between 09W and 12W. widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong from 01N to 06N between 16W and 25W, and from 10N
southward between 54W and 60W. Isolated moderate to locally strong
elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN, ACROSS FLORIDA, INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO, INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A deep layer trough is digging through 32N77W, to Florida near
29N83W, across the north central Gulf of Florida, to the middle
Texas Gulf coast. The trough is supporting a cold front, that
extends from a 1006 mb low pressure center that is near 32N78W,
across Florida near 29N82W, to 25N86W in the Gulf of Mexico, to
20N94W. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate in Mexico,
within 220 nm of the Mexico border with Texas, and the coast of
Mexico, have been moving toward the NE and E during the last six
hours, and then weakening and dissipating. One area of widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong has remained intact, within
a 30 nm radius of 21N97W along the Mexico coast. Scattered to
numerous strong is from 23N to 24N between 85W and 86W, about 200
nm to the WSW of Key West in Florida. Other rainshowers cover the
Gulf of Mexico from 23N to 26N from 86W eastward.

Upper level SW wind flow covers the rest of the Gulf of Mexico.
This SW wind flow is on the western side of a ridge, that is along
77W/78W.

VISIBILITY IN MILES, AND WEATHER, FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE
U.S.A., FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

FLORIDA: from Cross City to Brooksville to the Tampa Executive
Airport: 2 miles or less, with smaller areas of 1 mile or less.
earlier light rain for Ft. Myers and Naples has ended. light rain
is being reported in the Key West metropolitan area.

...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 50W WESTWARD, INTO THE CARIBBEAN
SEA, INCLUDING THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A middle level-to-upper level trough passes through 32N45W, to
25N50W, to 18N53W, toward Trinidad. the eastern part of the
Caribbean Sea near 14N62W, into northern coastal Venezuela. A cold
front is passing through 32N41W to 26N50W 25N60W, 26N65W. A
surface trough continues from 26N65W to 30N66W. Comparatively
drier air in subsidence is apparent in the Caribbean Sea from 74W
eastward. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate within 700
nm to the W and NW of the line that passes through 32N25W 23N33W
10N47W.

The Monsoon Trough is along 09N74W 10N80W beyond 12N87W in western
Nicaragua. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 14N
southward from 75W westward.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level NW wind flow is moving across Hispaniola. SW wind flow
from 600 mb to 800 mb is moving across Hispaniola. Some high level
moisture is moving across the area.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Santo Domingo:
VFR. La Romana and Punta Cana: VFR. Santiago and Puerto Plata:
MVFR. ceiling 1600 feet.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that NW wind flow will
move across the area during the first 12 hours or so. W wind will
continue for the next 12 hours to 18 hours. A ridge will extend to
the NE and E, from Nicaragua during the next 48 hours. The GFS
MODEL forecast for 500 mb shows that SW wind flow will move across
the area during the next 48 hours. Anticyclonic wind flow, from a
west-to-east oriented ridge, will span the Caribbean Sea. The GFS
MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that an east-to-west oriented
ridge, that will reach Hispaniola from the Atlantic Ocean, will
send southerly wind flow across Hispaniola during the next 48
hours.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface ridge extends from a 1024 mb high pressure center that
is near 33N17W, to 21N42W, to a 1018 mb high pressure center that
is near 23N63W, to 25N70W.

For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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