[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140603
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
203 AM EDT Sun May 14 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 16W from 10N southward,
moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Convective precipitation: numerous
strong from 06N to 08N between 15W and 17W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 64W/65W from 15N
southward, moving westward 15 to 20 knots. The wave is moving
through an area of upper level anticyclonic wind flow. No
significant deep convective precipitation.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal
near 14N17W to 09N20W and 05N26W. The ITCZ continues from 05N26W
to 04N30W 06N44W and 06N55W at the coast of Suriname. Convective
precipitation: scattered moderate to strong from 03N to 06N
between 17W and 22W, and from 05N southward between 32W and 34W.
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong within 30 nm to 45 nm
on either side of 04N35W 05N41W 07N48W, and from 01S to 02N
between 36W and 44W. 9W and 34W. Isolated moderate to locally
strong elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A deep layer trough is digging through the SE sections of the
U.S.A., from the Carolinas to the Florida Big Bend, into the
NE corner of the Gulf of Mexico near 29N86W, toward the middle
Texas Gulf coast. The trough is supporting a cold front, that
extends from a 1005 mb SW Georgia/Florida border low pressure
center, to 27N85W 23N90W. The front is stationary from 23N90W to
21N95W. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is to the east of 27N82W 23N88W 19N95W.
from 28N in the water northward between the Florida west coast
and 86W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from Mexico
to Central America, within 200 nm to 300 nm of the coastlines,
from Honduras to 25N in Mexico.

Upper level SW wind flow covers the rest of the Gulf of Mexico.
This SW wind flow is on the western side of a ridge, that is
along 77W/78W.

VISIBILITY IN MILES, AND WEATHER, FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE
U.S.A., FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

FLORIDA: light rain in Ft. Myers and Naples.

...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 50W WESTWARD, INTO THE CARIBBEAN
SEA, INCLUDING THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A middle level-to-upper level trough passes through 32N55W, to
26N57W, into the eastern part of the Caribbean Sea near 14N62W,
into northern coastal Venezuela. A cold front is passing through
32N54W to 27N60W, 27N63W, and 29N69W. A stationary front
continues from 28N68W beyond 32N73W. Comparatively drier air in
subsidence is within 120 nm to 210 nm to the SE of the line 30N50W
22N60W, and then from 22N southward in the Atlantic Ocean and in
the Caribbean Sea between 60W and 80W. Convective precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong within 30 nm to the
east of the line that passes through 32N52W 29N54W 26N61W.
Rainshowers are possible within 600 nm to the east of the line
that passes through 32N46W 24N52W 19N57W 10N63W.

The Monsoon Trough is along 10N/11N between 74W in Colombia beyond
86W in NW Costa Rica. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate
from 14N southward from 73W westward.

...HISPANIOLA...

Middle level-to-upper level NW wind flow is moving across
Hispaniola. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in
water vapor imagery in Hispaniola.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: VFR. for the
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR. few cumulonimbus clouds. Santo
Domingo: VFR. La Romana and Punta Cana: VFR. Santiago and Puerto
Plata: MVFR. ceiling 1600 feet.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that NW wind flow will
move across the area during the first 36 hours to 42 hours. W wind
flow and SW wind flow are forecast, at the end of the 48-hour
forecast period. An anticyclonic circulation center is forecast to
move to the E and eventually toward the SE, from the east central
coast of Nicaragua toward the Netherlands Antilles. The GFS MODEL
forecast for 500 mb shows that a ridge is forecast to move from
the eastern half of Cuba, across Hispaniola, and eventually more
eastward into the Atlantic Ocean. Anticyclonic wind flow will move
across Hispaniola during the first 24 hours. SW wind flow will
move across the area during day two. The GFS MODEL forecast for
700 mb shows that anticyclonic wind flow will move across the area
during the first 12 hours or so. SW and S wind flow will follow
for about the next 24 hours or so. More anticyclonic wind flow
will continue until the end of the 48-hour forecast period.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 16N
northward between Africa and 30W. An upper level trough passes
through 32N15W to 27N19W to 17N26W.

A surface ridge extends from a 1021 mb high pressure center that
is near 34N05W, to a 1019 mb high pressure center that is near
33N17W, to a 1021 mb high pressure center that is near 29N32W,
to 20N53W. A surface trough is along 27N54W 21N56W 17N61W.
A second surface ridge extends from 23N61W, across the Bahamas
and Cuba, to 22N87W near the NE coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.

High level moisture is moving from the Gulf of Mexico, across
Florida, into the Atlantic Ocean, and it covers the area that
is from 20N northward from 70W westward.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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