[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 132324
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
724 PM EDT Sat May 13 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has moved off the west coast of Africa with the
axis extending from 09N15W to 01N15W, moving west at about 15-20
kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed with this wave
between 11W-18W.

A tropical wave is moving across the far south-eastern Caribbean
with the axis from 15N64W to 03N63W, moving westward at about
10-15 kt. Scattered showers prevail along the portion of the wave
that remains inland over eastern Venezuela.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough crosses the western African coast near 11N15W
to 06N18W to 05N29W. The ITCZ begins near 05N29W and continues to
06N55W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical wave
near Africa, scattered moderate convection is observed south of
the ITCZ and between 26W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Westerly zonal flow aloft covers the entire Gulf. At the surface,
a cold front extends from 30N84W to 24N89W to 21N97W. The front
is easily identifiable on the latest visible satellite imagery and
ship and buoy observations. Scatterometer data depicts light to
moderate northerly winds northwest of the front, while
moderate southwesterly winds prevail over the remainder of the
basin. Expect for the cold front to continue moving southeast
while weakening. A middle/upper level trough is forecast to move
into the western Gulf on Sunday and into the middle Gulf by
Monday. With this, convection is expected across the eastern half
of the basin.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is moving across the southeast Caribbean. Please
refer to the section above for details. Flow aloft is generally
anticyclonic over most of the basin with strong subsidence
prevailing mainly across the eastern half, as depicted in water
vapor imagery. Scatterometer passes depict gentle to moderate
trades across the basin. Expect for a frontal boundary to approach
the northwest Caribbean during the next 24 hours enhancing
convection. Little change is expected elsewhere.

HISPANIOLA...

Fair weather prevails across the island as a 1017 mb surface
high is centered to the northeast of the area near 23N65W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Atlantic. Please
refer to the section above for details. A diffluent flow aloft
prevails across the western Atlantic mainly west of 70W supporting
cloudiness and scattered light to moderate convection in this area.
To the east, a 1017 mb surface high is centered near 23N65W. A
frontal system extends just north of this feature, analyzed as a
cold front from 31N48W to 26N56W to 27N65W then as a warm front
from that point to 31N69W. Isolated showers prevail along the
northern portion of the cold front. A pre-frontal trough extend
from 30N45W to 19N55W. A band of isolated showers is observed to
the east of the trough between 32W-50W. A surface ridge prevails
across the remainder of the basin anchored by a 1023 mb high
centered near 30N23W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA

NThis weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net