[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101107
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
707 AM EDT Wed May 10 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 27W/28W, from 09N
southward, moving westward 15 to 20 knots. Convective
precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong, with the ITCZ,
from 04N southward between 30W and 36W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 47W/48W from 10N
southward, moving westward 15 to 20 knots. Upper level SW wind
flow is cutting across the area of this tropical wave. Convective
precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong from 05N
southward between 42W and 52W, and from 04N to 08N between 42W and
47W.

An inland tropical wave is along 62W/63W from 10N southward,
inland in Venezuela and Brazil, moving westward 15 knots. No
significant deep convective precipitation is apparent.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal
near 15N17W to 10N21W. The ITCZ continues from 10N21W to 06N23W
05N26W, and 02N47W. Convective precipitation: numerous strong from
06N to 11N between 11W and 16W. It is possible that this
precipitation may be accompanying the next tropical wave.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong from 03N to 04N between 06W
and 21W. Isolated moderate to locally strong, elsewhere, from 10N
southward from 60W eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level ridge is along 93W/94W in the western half of the
Gulf of Mexico. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the area.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico. A surface
ridge extends from a 1019 mb high pressure center is near 28N87W
into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico.

...VISIBILITY AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES
THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND
FROM 88W WESTWARD...

KBBF: 3 miles and haze. KVOA: 4 miles and haze.

VISIBILITY AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A.
FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: Edinburg 1 mile with mist and haze. light rain in Victoria.
LOUISIANA: 3 to 5 miles with mist in Galliano and Slidell.
MISSISSIPPI: Pascagoula: the visibilities have been as low as 1/2
mile with fog and mist during the early morning hours of today.
ALABAMA: Gulf Shores: the visibilities have been as low as 1/2
mile with fog and mist during the early morning hours of today.
Evergreen: 5 miles and mist. FLORIDA: Mary Esther/Valparaiso/
Destin: 1 to 2 miles with mist during the early morning hours of
today. The visibilities have been as low as 1/4 of a mile during
the early morning hours of today from Apalachicola to the NW part
of the Panama City metropolitan area. Punta Gorda: 3 miles and
fog.

...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 55W WESTWARD, INTO THE CARIBBEAN
SEA, INCLUDING THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A middle level-to-upper level trough passes through 32N61W, to
25N62W, to the Puerto Rico, toward Trinidad. A surface trough is
along 22N59W 19N60W. Convective precipitation: scattered moderate
to strong from 15N to 16N between 62W and 63W, and within a 30 nm
radius of 32N58W. Isolated moderate elsewhere within 150 nm on
either side of the line, from 14N64W in the Caribbean Sea, to
22N58W and 27N54W in the Atlantic Ocean, beyond 32N49W. Widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong from 13N southward from 75W
westward. Other possible rainshowers are in the Caribbean Sea,
to the SW of the line that runs from the Yucatan Channel to 14N67W.

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended
at 10/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 1.30 in
Guadeloupe.

...HISPANIOLA...

Middle level-to-upper level cyclonic wind flow, with a trough, is
moving away from the area. The trough now is mostly across Puerto
Rico. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water
vapor imagery in Hispaniola. A surface trough is along 66W/67W
from 16N to 21N, across Puerto Rico.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: MVFR. for the
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Santo Domingo: VFR. La Romana and Punta Cana:
VFR. Santiago and Puerto Plata: VFR.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that NW wind flow will
move across the area. Hispaniola will be on the western side of a
trough. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 mb shows that cyclonic
wind flow will move across the area during the first 6 hours to 12
hours of the 48-hour forecast period. Expect NW wind flow to
follow the cyclonic wind flow. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb
shows that anticyclonic wind flow with a ridge will cover
Hispaniola for the first 6 hours or so. Cyclonic wind flow with
a NE-to-SW oriented trough, will cover the area during the rest of
the 48-hour forecast period.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A middle level-to-upper level trough passes through 32N24W, to
27N26W and 22N42W, to 15N54W. Comparatively drier air in
subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery within 420 nm on
either side of 27N32W 23N41W 16N49W 10N52W.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 13N
northward from 60W eastward. A 1021 mb high pressure center is
near 29N50W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic
Ocean from 20N northward from 68W westward. A 1018 mb high
pressure center is near 30N74W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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