[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100550
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
150 AM EDT Wed May 10 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 07N26W 03N28W, southward
along 28W. The wave is moving westward 20 knots during the last
24 hours. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong, with the ITCZ, from 04N southward between 30W and 36W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 10N46W 05N48W, southward
along 48W. The wave has been moving westward 20 knots during the
last 24 hours. Upper level SW wind flow is cutting across the area
of this tropical wave. Convective precipitation: scattered to
numerous strong from 04N southward between 45W and 51W. Widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong from 03N to 08N between 41W
and 46W.

An inland tropical wave is along 61W/62W from 10N southward,
moving westward 15 knots during the last 24 hours. The wave is
inland in Venezuela and Brazil. No significant deep convective
precipitation is apparent.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea-
Bissau near 12N16W to 08N16W and 05N19W. The ITCZ continues from
05N19W to 02N26W, 01N33W, 02N42W and 02N47W. Convective
precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong from 08N
southward from 60W eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level ridge is along 93W/94W in the western half of the
Gulf of Mexico. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the area.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico. A surface
ridge extends from a 1018 mb high pressure center is near 30N89W
into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico.

...VISIBILITY AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES
THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND
FROM 88W WESTWARD...

2 to 3 miles and haze: KBBF. 3 to 5 miles and haze: KVOA.

VISIBILITY AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A.
FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: Edinburg 1 to 3 miles and haze. light rain in Victoria.

...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 55W WESTWARD, INTO THE CARIBBEAN
SEA, INCLUDING THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A middle level-to-upper level trough passes through 32N61W, to
25N65W, to the Mona Passage, to 15N65W, toward Trinidad. A surface
trough is along 33N59W 30N62W 27N64W. Convective precipitation:
scattered moderate to isolated strong from 16N to 17N between 62W
and 64W. Isolated moderate elsewhere within 360 nm on either side
of the line, from 16N65W in the Caribbean Sea, to 26N55W in the
Atlantic Ocean, beyond 32N49W. Other possible rainshowers are in
the Caribbean Sea between 60W and 73W, and to the SW of the line
that runs from the Yucatan Channel to 16N70W.

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended
at 10/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 1.30 in
Guadeloupe.

...HISPANIOLA...

Middle level-to-upper level cyclonic wind flow, with a trough, is
moving across the area. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is
apparent in water vapor imagery in Hispaniola. A surface trough is
along 66W/68W from 18N in the Mona Passage to 23N in the Atlantic
Ocean.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: MVFR. for the
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR. few cumulonimbus clouds. Santo
Domingo: VFR. La Romana and Punta Cana: VFR. Santiago: VFR.
Puerto Plata: VFR.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that NW wind flow will
move across the area. Hispaniola will be on the western side of a
trough. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 mb shows that cyclonic
wind flow will move across the area during the first 6 hours to 12
hours of the 48-hour forecast period. Expect NW wind flow to
follow the cyclonic wind flow. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb
shows that anticyclonic wind flow with a ridge will cover
Hispaniola for the first 6 hours or so. Cyclonic wind flow with
a NE-to-SW oriented trough, will cover the area during the rest of
the 48-hour forecast period.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A middle level-to-upper level trough passes through 32N26W, to
28N32W and 26N36W, to 11N55W. Comparatively drier air in
subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery within 420 nm on
either side of 27N34W 23N42W 17N48W 10N53W.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 13N
northward from 60W eastward. A 1021 mb high pressure center is
near 29N50W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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