[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091115
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
715 AM EDT Tue May 9 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 39W/40W from 12N
southward, moving westward 15 knots. Upper level SW wind flow is
cutting across the area of this tropical wave. Convective
precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong from 12N
southward between 37W and 44W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 55W/56W from 11N
southward, moving westward 15 knots. This wave is moving through
the area of an upper level trough. Convective precipitation:
rainshowers are possible from 13N southward between 50W and 58W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 15N17W to 07N19W. The ITCZ continues from 07N19W to the
Equator along 27W, to 02S37W. Convective precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong from 07N southward from 60W
eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level ridge is along 92W/93W in the western half of the
Gulf of Mexico. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the area.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico. A 1018 mb
high pressure center is near 28N87W. A ridge extends from the
1018 mb high center into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico.

...VISIBILITY AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES
THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND
FROM 88W WESTWARD...

2 to 3 miles and haze: KBBF, KVOA, and KVKY.

VISIBILITY AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A.
FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: Edinburg has been reporting light rain and fog, and
visibilities as low as 1/4 of a mile, off and on, since 09/0700
utc. Louisiana: Galliano reported mist and a visibility of 1/4 of
a mile during the last hour; generally 3 to 5 miles and mist.
Slidell has reported a visibility as low as 1/2 a mile with fog
during the last hour. Hammond: 5 miles and mist. MISSISSIPPI:
Pascagoula has been reporting visibilities of 1 mile or less since
09/0540 UTC with fog and mist. ALABAMA: 1 to 3 miles and sometimes
1 mile or less, with fog and mist, since 09/0600 UTC. Mobile has
been reporting 1 to 3 miles and mist during the last few hours.
FLORIDA: 3 miles and fog in Pensacola and Panama City. Perry has
reported visibilities as low as 1/2 of a mile with fog during the
early morning hours of today.

...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 65W WESTWARD, INTO THE CARIBBEAN
SEA, INCLUDING THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A middle level-to-upper level trough passes through 32N70W, to
the Windward Passage. The trough continues from the Windward
Passage to 12N70W in the south central Caribbean Sea. Upper level
anticyclonic wind flow is moving from the eastern Pacific Ocean,
across Central America, into the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. A
cold front passes through 32N72W to 31N75W. A surface trough is
along 31N75W to 28N79W. A second cold front passes through 32N61W
to 31N62W. A stationary front continues from 31N62W to 27N67W and
21N70W. A surface trough is moving through the Caribbean Sea, and
parts of the Atlantic Ocean, along 68W from 14N to 22N. Convective
precipitation in the Caribbean Sea: isolated to widely scattered
strong in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea, from 10N southward
from 79W eastward to land. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere, in
scattered to broken low level clouds, from 83W eastward.
Convective precipitation in the Atlantic Ocean: rainshowers are
possible within 240 nm to 300 nm on either side of the line that
passes through 32N56W, to 25N61W and 20N64W.

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended
at 09/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.22 in
Guadeloupe.

...HISPANIOLA...

Middle level-to-upper level SW wind flow is moving across the
area. An upper level trough is in the Windward Passage, just to
the west of Hispaniola. Rainshowers are possible inland, and in
the coastal waters.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: VFR. for the
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Santo Domingo: VFR. La Romana and Punta Cana:
VFR. Santiago: VFR. Puerto Plata: nearby rainshowers. MVFR.
ceiling 1600 feet. few cumulonimbus clouds.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that cyclonic wind flow
will move across the area during the first 12 hours or so. Expect
NW wind flow during the rest of the 48-hour forecast period. The
GFS MODEL forecast for 500 mb shows that broad cyclonic wind flow
will move across the area during the first 24 hours of the 48-hour
forecast period. Expect NW wind flow during day two. The GFS
MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that variable wind directions will
be covering Hispaniola for the first 6 hours to 12 hours of day
one. Anticyclonic wind flow with a ridge will cover the area for
the rest of day one. Day two will consist of a trough across the
northern half of the island, and an anticyclonic circulation
center covering the southern half of the island. NW wind flow will
last for about 6 hours or so. The last 6 hours to 12 hours will be
covered with cyclonic wind flow and a trough.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A middle level-to-upper level trough passes through 32N33W, to
26N40W and 20N46W, to 14N52W and 07N54W. Comparatively drier air
in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery from 26N
southward between 40W and 60W. Broken to overcast high level
clouds are within 240 nm to 300 nm on either side of the line
26N15W 23N30W 15N37W 10N42W.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow is from 30N northward from 30W
eastward. A cold front passes through 32N14W to the Canary Islands
near 27N18W. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible
from 30N northward between 10W and 20W.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 15N
northward between 20W and 60W. A 1020 mb high pressure center is
near 30N52W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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