[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090605
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Tue May 9 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 38W/39W from 12N
southward, moving westward 15 knots to 20 knots. Upper level SW
wind flow is cutting across the area of this tropical wave.
Convective precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong from
09N southward between 36W and 42W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 54W/55W from 11N
southward, moving westward 15 knots to 20 knots. This wave is
moving through the area of an upper level trough. Convective
precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 14N southward between
50W and 57W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal border sections of
Guinea and Sierra Leone near 09N13W to 06N17W. The ITCZ continues
from 06N17W to 04N23W to 01N30W 01N36W, to the Equator along 50W.
Convective precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong from
09N southward from 60W eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level ridge is along 92W/93W in the western half of the
Gulf of Mexico. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the area.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico. A 1018 mb
high pressure center is near 29N87W. A ridge extends from the 1018
mb high center into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico.

...VISIBILITY AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES
THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND
FROM 88W WESTWARD...

3 to 5 miles and haze: KBBF, KVOA, KVKY.
1 to 3 miles and haze: KVQT,

VISIBILITY AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A.
FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: light rain in Alice. MISSISSIPPI: 3 miles and mist in
Pascagoula.

...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 65W WESTWARD, INTO THE CARIBBEAN
SEA, INCLUDING THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A middle level-to-upper level trough passes through 32N73W, to the
Windward Passage. The trough continues from the Windward Passage
to 14N70W in the south central Caribbean Sea. Upper level
anticyclonic wind flow is moving from the eastern Pacific Ocean,
across Central America, into the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea.
A cold front passes through 32N74W to 31N75W. A surface trough
extends from a 1014 mb low pressure center that is near 30N77W, to
the NW Bahamas. A second cold front passes through 32N62W to
29N66W. A stationary front continues from 29N66W to 25N68W and
21N70W. A surface trough is moving through the Caribbean Sea, and
parts of the Atlantic Ocean, along 67W/68W from 14N to 22N.
Convective precipitation in the Caribbean Sea: isolated to widely
scattered strong in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea, from 10N
southward from 79W eastward to land. Rainshowers are possible
elsewhere, in scattered to broken low level clouds, from 83W
eastward. Convective precipitation in the Atlantic Ocean:
rainshowers are possible within 250 nm on either side of the line
that passes through 32N59W, to 26N62W and 20N64W.

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended
at 09/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.22 in
Guadeloupe.

...HISPANIOLA...

Middle level-to-upper level SW wind flow is moving across the
area. An upper level trough is to the west of Hispaniola.
Rainshowers are possible inland, and in the coastal waters.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Santo Domingo:
nearby rainshowers. MVFR. ceiling 1600 feet. few cumulonimbus
clouds. La Romana and Punta Cana: VFR. Santiago: VFR. Puerto
Plata: MVFR. ceiling 1600 feet.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that cyclonic wind flow
will move across the area during the first 12 hours or so. Expect
NW wind flow during the rest of the 48-hour forecast period. The
GFS MODEL forecast for 500 mb shows that broad cyclonic wind flow
will move across the area during the first 24 hours of the 48-hour
forecast period. Expect NW wind flow during day two. The GFS
MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that variable wind directions will
be covering Hispaniola for the first 6 hours to 12 hours of day
one. Anticyclonic wind flow with a ridge will cover the area for
the rest of day one. Day two will consist of a trough across the
northern half of the island, and an anticyclonic circulation
center covering the southern half of the island. NW wind flow will
last for about 6 hours or so. The last 6 hours to 12 hours will be
covered with cyclonic wind flow and a trough.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A middle level-to-upper level trough passes through 32N33W, to
26N40W and 20N46W, to 14N52W and 07N54W. Comparatively drier air
in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery from 26N
southward between 40W and 60W. Broken to overcast high level
clouds are within 240 nm to 300 nm on either side of the line
27N15W 24N30W 16N37W 10N31W.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow is from 30N northward from 30W
eastward. A dissipating cold front passes through 32N18W to 28N21W
and 26N26W. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible
from 30N northward between 14W and 18W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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