[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050602
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
202 AM EDT Fri May 5 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough crosses the western African coast near 08N13W
and extends to 04N17W, where the ITCZ begins and then continues
along 02N34W to the coast of Brazil near 01S46W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 05S to 05N west of 16W. Otherwise, a
cluster of heavy showers and isolated tstms is off the coast of
Liberia, Africa from 01 to 06N between 09W and 14W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A strong cold front is moving through the eastern Gulf of Mexico
from 30N84W to 22N90W with tail extending southwest to the Bay of
Campeche near 19N96W. Mostly shallow moisture ahead of the front
support scattered to isolated showers east of the boundary,
including the northern and central Florida Peninsula, the Yucatan
Peninsula and the Bay of Campeche. Heavier showers along with
isolated tstms are in the Yucatan channel being enhanced by a
surface pre-frontal trough that extends from 22N85W to the Gulf of
Honduras. Fresh to near gale force winds are between the front
and 96W with the strongest winds being in the NE gulf as indicated
by the latest scatterometer pass. Please read the latest National
Hurricane Center High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for further details. The front will move off
the southeast gulf Friday night, leaving the basin with a weak
ridge over the weekend.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Except for the far northwest Caribbean Sea, the basin is very
quiet this morning. In the NW basin, a surface trough extends from
22N85W to the Gulf of Honduras, which is supporting scattered
showers and isolated tstms W of 83W, including the Yucatan channel.
Latest scatterometer data indicate fresh to near gale force winds
off the NE Yucatan Peninsula and in the Yucatan channel. Numerous
heavy showers and tstms are in Belize, Guatemala and western
Honduras being supported by a diffluent environment aloft. Showers
will prevail in this region as a cold moving across the eastern
Gulf of Mexico enters the basin early Saturday morning. Weak
middle level troughiness prevails near Hispaniola, which along
shallow moisture continue to support cloudiness with possible
isolated showers in the north-central portion of the island. Water
vapor imagery show dry air subsidence elsewhere, thus supporting
fair weather. Latest scatterometer data show mainly moderate
trades across the region, except for fresh winds off the coast of
northern Colombia S of 14N and in the Gulf of Honduras.

...HISPANIOLA...

Weak middle level troughiness prevails near Hispaniola, which
along shallow moisture continue to support cloudiness with
possible isolated showers in the north-central portion of the
island. Skies are expected to clear out later this morning,
however a moist airmass moving S of Puerto Rico is expected to
reach the island Friday night and showers are forecast to develop
mainly across the central Island.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Broad surface high pressure dominates across most of the basin
being anchored by a 1026 mb high near 31N51W, which provides
stable and fair weather conditions. Otherwise, a broad middle
level low north of the area continue to support a weakening cold
front past the Canary Islands from 30N11W to 21N21W. A new cold
front is forecast to come off NE Florida later this morning and
move over the northern and central Bahamas Saturday where it will
stall before starting to weaken. Showers, high winds to near gale
force and seas to 12 ft are expected for the SW N Atlc waters
associated with this front.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
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