[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 042337
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
737 PM EDT Thu May 4 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A strong cold front is moving through the Gulf of Mexico at this
time. A line of precipitation and gale-force winds accompany the
cold front. The cold front on 04/2100 UTC extends from the
Florida Panhandle near 31N87W to Vera Cruz near 19N96W. Gale force
winds are S of 20N W of 95W with seas to 9 ft. Elsewhere W of
front winds are NW 20-30 kt. The gale force winds are forecast to
continue for the next 06 hours. Please read the latest National
Hurricane Center High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough crosses the western African coast near 07N12W
and extends to 03N17W, where the ITCZ begins and extends to
02N37W to the South American coast near 01S46W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is from 02N-08N between
07W-11W. Isolated moderate convection is from 04S-04N between
12W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front on 04/2100 UTC extends from the Florida Panhandle
near 31N87W to Vera Cruz near 19N96W. Gale force winds are S of
20N W of 95W with seas to 9 ft. Elsewhere W of front winds are NW
20-30 kt. A squall line is over the SE Gulf from 27N83W to 23N87W
to 20N92W. 10-15 kt S winds are E of the squall line. Scattered
moderate convection is along the squall line. Scattered moderate
convection is along the front from 24N-29N between 88W-91W.
Scattered showers are with 120 nm of the remainder of the cold
front. In the upper levels, an upper level trough is over the Gulf
with axis along 90W, supporting the cold front. Expect in 24
hours for the cold front to extend from S Florida to the NE
Yucatan Peninsula with convection.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-20 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea with strongest
winds over the central Caribbean. Clusters of scattered moderate
convection are presently over N Venezuela,N Colombia, Panama,
Costa Rica, Nicaragua, W Honduras, Guatemala, Belize, and the
Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered showers are Cuba, Jamaica,
Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, the Leeward Islands, and the S Windward
Islands. In the upper levels, zonal flow is over the Caribbean.
In 24 hours, expect prefrontal convection to be over W Cuba, the
Yucatan Channel, and the Yucatan Peninsula. Expect little change
elsewhere.

...HISPANIOLA...

Presently scattered showers remain over the island especially over
the higher terrain. Expect afternoon and evening thunderstorms
during maximum heating Friday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1025 mb high is over the central Atlantic near 32N51W. A cold
front enters the E Atlantic near 31N12W and extends across the
Cape Verde Islands to 24N20W to 21N30W. Scattered showers are
within 90 nm of either side of the front. In 24 hours the
Atlantic cold will move over W Africa with showers. A cold front
will also be over the W Atlantic from 31N78W to S Florida with
convection. 20-25 kt winds will be W of this front.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa

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