[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221103
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
703 AM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is
listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-
MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are
forecast for the area that is called: AGADIR. The OUTLOOK, for
the 24 hours that follow the forecast that is valid until 23/1200
UTC, consists of: the threat of NE near gale or gale in AGADIR,
CANARIAS, and CAP BLANC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 10N14W, to 03N18W and to the Equator along 25W. The ITCZ
continues from the Equator along 25W, to 02S29W and 02S39W.
Convective precipitation: scattered strong from 01N southward from
44W westward. isolated moderate elsewhere from 03N southward from
40W westward. scattered moderate to strong from 01N to 06N between
10W and 30W. isolated moderate elsewhere from 02N southward
between 30W and 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

Middle level to upper level NW wind flow is moving across the open
waters of the Gulf of Mexico. Comparatively drier air in subsidence
also is present in water vapor imagery, in the entire area.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico. A 1022
mb high pressure center is near 27N87W.

...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: KVKY.

MVFR: KBQX, KXIH, KVOA, and KMIS.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: MVFR/IFR in parts of the central Texas Gulf coastal plains.
LIFR from Victoria to Port Lavaca to Palacios. LIFR in Beaumont/
Port Arthur. MVFR in Jasper. MVFR in Sugar Land. LIFR in Pearland.
LIFR in Tomball. IFR in Conroe. LOUISIANA: LIFR from Baton Rouge
southward and southwestward. MVFR all around Lake Pontchartrain.
MISSISSIPPI: IFR in Natchez and McComb, and in Gulfport and
Biloxi. ALABAMA: MVFR/IFR from Dothan southward and southwestward.
FLORIDA: light rain in Milton. LIFR in Crestview. LIFR in Mary
Esther/Valparaiso/Destin. IFR/MVFR from Marianna to Panama City to
Apalachicola to Tallahassee. IFR in Perry. MVFR in Cross City.
LIFR in Brooksville and Punta Gorda. IFR in Fort Myers.

...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING THE
REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough passes through 32N74W in the western
Atlantic Ocean, across the Bahamas and Cuba, to 18N81W in the NW
corner of the Caribbean Sea.

Upper level SW wind flow is to the east of the line that runs from
the Windward Passage to NE coastal Nicaragua. Upper level cyclonic
wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea to the west of the same
Windward Passage-to-NE Nicaragua line.

Rainshowers are possible between 60W and 70W, from 15N to 20N
between 70W and 80W around the southern part of Hispaniola, and
to the west of the line from the Windward Passage to the coast of
Panama along 80W, in areas of scattered to broken low level
clouds.

The 24-hour rainfall total in inches for the period ending at
22/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...is 0.04 in
Guadeloupe.

...HISPANIOLA...

Middle level to upper level SW wind flow is moving across the
island. Southerly wind flow is from 600 mb to 800 mb.
Rainshowers are possible inland, and around Hispaniola.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: MVFR. for the
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Santo Domingo/La Romana/Punta Cana:
VFR. Santiago: VFR. Puerto Plata: MVFR. ceiling 1800 feet.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that SW wind flow will
move across the area during the next 48 hours. A trough will be
approaching Hispaniola at the end of the 48-hour forecast time
period. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB shows that SW wind flow
will move across the area. Hispaniola will be at to the SE and E
of a trough that is forecast to end up across Cuba at the end of
48 hours. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that SE-to-S
wind flow will be moving across Hispaniola, becoming SW wind flow
at the end of day one. Day two will consist of southerly wind
flow, and then from the SW, followed by cyclonic wind flow, and
then anticyclonic wind flow at the end of day two.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The base of an upper level trough reaches 32N47W. Middle level to
upper level cyclonic wind flow is to the west of the line that
passes through 32N42W to the Mona Passage. A cold front passes
through 32N47W to 29N50W and 24N58W. The front becomes stationary
from 24N58W to 20N67W, to central Hispaniola. Convective
precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong from 20N to
24N between 66W and 72W. Isolated moderate from 27N to 31N between
45W and 52W. Scattered strong from 31N to 32N between 44W and 46W.
Rainshowers are possible elsewhere to the NW of the line that
passes through 32N40W to 23N52W, to the eastern part of
Hispaniola.

Middle level to upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic
Ocean from 15N northward from 40W eastward.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow is to the east and to the west of
the 32N47W-to-Hispaniola frontal boundary. Broad surface
anticyclonic wind flow covers the area from 10N northward between
Africa and the frontal boundary. A 1021 mb high pressure center is
near 28N66W, to the west of the cold front.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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