[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 220604
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
204 AM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is
listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-
MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are
forecast for the area that is called: AGADIR. The OUTLOOK, for
the 24 hours that follow the forecast that is valid until 23/0000
UTC, consists of: the threat of NE near gale or gale in AGADIR,
CANARIAS, and CAP BLANC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W, to 04N17W and 01N24W. The ITCZ continues from
01N24W, to the Equator along 25W, to 02S30W, 02S35W, and to 03S40W
at the coast of Brazil. Convective precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong from 06N southward between
09W and 27W, and from 03N southward from 40W westward. Warming
cloud top temperatures and dissipating convective precipitation
from 04N southward from 06W eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

Middle level to upper level NW wind flow is moving across the open
waters of the Gulf of Mexico. Comparatively drier air in subsidence
also is present in water vapor imagery, in the entire area.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico. A 1021 mb
high pressure center is near 27N87W.

...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: none.

MVFR: KGUL, KEHC, KGHB, and KVOA.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: LIFR in Beaumont/Port Arthur. LOUISIANA: LIFR in parts of the
Lake Charles metropolitan area. MVFR in Galliano. MISSISSIPPI: MVFR
in Pascagoula. ALABAMA: MVFR in parts of the Mobile Alabama
metropolitan area. FLORIDA: MVFR in Crestview. IFR in Mary Esther/
Valparaiso/Destin. MVFR in Perry. IFR in Cross City. LIFR in
Punta Gorda.

...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING THE
REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough passes through 32N74W in the western
Atlantic Ocean, across the Bahamas and Cuba, to 18N81W in the NW
corner of the Caribbean Sea.

Upper level SW wind flow is to the east of the line that runs from
the Windward Passage to NE coastal Nicaragua. Upper level cyclonic
wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea to the west of the same
Windward Passage-to-NE Nicaragua line.

Rainshowers are possible between 60W and 70W, from 17N to 23N
between 67W and 76W around Hispaniola, and to the west of the
line from the Windward Passage to the coast of Panama along 80W,
in areas of scattered to broken low level clouds.

The 24-hour rainfall total in inches for the period ending at
22/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...is 0.04 in
Guadeloupe.

...HISPANIOLA...

Middle level to upper level SW wind flow is moving across the
island. Southerly wind flow is from 600 mb to 800 mb.
Rainshowers are possible from 17N to 23N between 67W and 76W
around Hispaniola.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: MVFR. for the
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR. earlier cumulonimbus clouds
have disappeared. Santo Domingo/La Romana/Punta Cana: VFR. Santiago:
light rain. MVFR. ceiling 1400 feet. Puerto Plata: heavy rain.
MVFR. ceiling 1400 feet.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that SW wind flow will
move across the area during the next 48 hours. A trough will be
approaching Hispaniola at the end of the 48-hour forecast time
period. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB shows that SW wind flow
will move across the area. Hispaniola will be at to the SE and E
of a trough that is forecast to end up across Cuba at the end of
48 hours. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that SE-to-S
wind flow will be moving across Hispaniola, becoming SW wind flow
at the end of day one. Day two will consist of southerly wind
flow, and then from the SW, followed by cyclonic wind flow, and
then anticyclonic wind flow at the end of day two.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The base of an upper level trough reaches 32N52W. Middle level to
upper level cyclonic wind flow is to the west of the line that
passes through 32N50W to the Mona Passage. A cold front passes
through 32N48W to 25N56W. The front becomes stationary from 25N56W
to 22N63W, to central Hispaniola. Convective precipitation:
isolated moderate from 28N northward between 44W and 51W.
Rainshowers are possible elsewhere to the NW of the line that
passes through 32N50W to 23N55W to the eastern part of Hispaniola.

Middle level to upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic
Ocean from 16N northward from 40W eastward.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow is to the east and to the west of
the 32N48W-to-Hispaniola frontal boundary. Broad surface
anticyclonic wind flow covers the area from 10N northward between
Africa and the frontal boundary. A 1021 mb high pressure center
is near 28N70W, to the west of the cold front.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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