[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161734
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
133 PM EDT Thu Mar 16 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A tight surface pressure gradient will develop across the south
central Caribbean Sea in about 36 hours. The surface pressure
gradient will support NE-to-E gale-force winds, and sea heights
ranging from 9 feet to 10 feet, in the the waters that are to the
north of Colombia, from 10N to 13N between 73W and 77W. Please
read the latest High Seas Forecast product under WMO/AWIPS headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia
near 05N09W to 05N12W. The ITCZ continues from 05N12W, to 05N19W
01N34W, to the Equator along 36W, to 01S403W, crossing the Equator
along 46W, to 04N50W. Convective precipitation: widely scattered
to scattered strong from 05N southward between 38W and 52W.
Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 07N southward
from 30W eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico from 26N
northward. This cyclonic wind flow is part of the larger-scale
trough and cyclonic wind flow that are pushing the current
Atlantic Ocean-to-NW Caribbean Sea cold front/stationary front.

An upper level trough is along 25N93W 21N98W in the SW corner of
the Gulf of Mexico.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire area. A surface
ridge passes through Alabama and the Florida Panhandle to the
Yucatan Peninsula.

Gale-force winds are blowing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec on the
eastern Pacific Ocean side of southern Mexico. Please read the
Eastern Pacific Ocean HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03
KNHC...and the Eastern Pacific Ocean TROPICAL WEATHER
DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...for more details.

...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: KXIH and KHHV.

MVFR: KVBS.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: MVFR from Laredo to the Deep South. MVFR from the IAH
airport to Tomball and Conroe. from LOUISIANA to FLORIDA: VFR.

...FROM THE EASTERN U.S.A. AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA...INTO THE NW CORNER AND THE WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level SW wind flow moves from the NW corner of the Caribbean
Sea, across Cuba and the Bahamas, toward 32N57W in the Atlantic
Ocean. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico
from 26N northward. Deep layer cyclonic wind flow covers the
Atlantic Ocean from 60W westward, and in the eastern one-third
of the U.S.A. A cold front passes through 32N60W to 26N66W, across
the SE Bahamas to SE Cuba. The front becomes stationary from SE
Cuba, across western sections of Jamaica, to NE coastal Nicaragua.
A secondary and dissipating cold front passes through 32N62W to
26N70W to 23N76W in the central Bahamas. Convective precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 29N northward
between 56W and 64W. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere to the NW
of the line that passes through 32N50W to 26N60W 20N70W 15N76W
12N83W, from the Atlantic Ocean into the Caribbean Sea.

...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire area.
An upper level ridge extends from Colombia to 04N93W in the
eastern Pacific Ocean. An area of solid upper level SW wind flow
is to the west of the line that runs from the Mona Passage to NE
Colombia.

A surface trough is along 68W, from the Mona Passage southward.
Convective precipitation: scattered to broken low level clouds
and possible rainshowers are from the Mona Passage southward
between 63W and 74W.

24-hour rainfall amounts, for the period ending at 16/1200 UTC,
according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
TABLES, MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC, are: 0.28 in Montego Bay in
Jamaica, and 0.07 in Guadeloupe.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level wind flow is curving anticyclonically across the
island.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: VFR. for the
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR. Santo Domingo/La Romana/Punta
Cana: VFR. Santiago/Puerto Plata: VFR.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that SW wind flow will
move across the area, with the current ridge. The GFS MODEL
forecast for 500 MB shows that the anticyclonic wind flow and
W-to-SW wind flow will move across the area during the next 48
hours. It is possible that the ridge that will be affecting
Hispaniola at 500 mb may shift its position a bit here and there
during the next 48 hours, thus accounting for the variations in
wind direction. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that NE
wind flow cover the area. A NE-to-SW oriented ridge either will
cut through the Windward Passage, or it will cut across SE Cuba,
during the next 48 hours.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Deep layer cyclonic wind flow, with a trough, covers the area
from 06N northward between 20W and 55W. A cyclonic circulation
center is near 18N40W. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are
possible in the areas of cyclonic wind flow.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 10N
between Africa and the 32N60W-to-SE Bahamas cold front.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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