[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161000
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
600 AM EDT Thu Mar 16 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A tight pressure gradient will develop across the south-central
Caribbean in 43 hours supporting gale-force winds over the waters
north of Colombia mainly south of 13N between 74W-76W. See the
latest High Seas Forecast product under WMO/AWIPS headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from the coast of Africa near 07N12W
to 05N17W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 05N17W
to 01S39W to the coast of South America near 01N50W. Scattered
moderate convection prevails along the ITCZ mainly west of 34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1030 mb surface high is centered over northern Mississippi
near 35N89W producing surface ridging along 90W that covers the
basin. Scatterometer data depicts a gentle to moderate anticyclonic
flow across the area. In the upper levels, the base of a large
longwave trough is over the Gulf of Mexico with axis along 80W.
Strong subsidence is over the entire Gulf. Expect in 24 hours for
scattered showers to be over the Bay of Campeche with surface
return flow.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends from east Cuba near 20N74W to east
Honduras near 15N83W. Isolated showers are observed along and west
of the front. To the east, a surface trough is over the east
Caribbean extending from 17N65W to 11N65W. Isolated showers
prevail in the vicinity of the trough between 63W-70W. Scatterometer
data depicts moderate to fresh north-easterly winds north of the
front while moderate easterly winds prevail south of the front and
over most of the basin. The exception is across the waters north
of Colombia, where winds are pulsing to moderate to fresh as the
pressure gradient tightens overnight. This area will experience
gale-force winds within the next 48 hours. Please refer to the
section above for details. Expect the front to remain stationary
for the next 24 hours with showers. The surface trough will
continue moving west with showers.

...HISPANIOLA...

Isolated showers are over the western portion of the island due
to low-level moisture in the tradewind flow, and the onset of
additional pre-frontal showers. Expect for the front to continue
approaching to the island during the next 24 hours enhancing
convection.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends over the west Atlantic from 31N62W to east
Cuba near 20N74W. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is
within 100 nm of the front north of 28N. A reinforcing cold front
extends from 31N65W to the north Bahamas at 24N78W. Isolated
showers are observed along the front. A broad 1039 mb high is
centered over the central Atlantic north of our area and extends
south across the remainder of the basin. Expect over the next 24
hours for the west Atlantic fronts to merge, and for the resultant
cold front to move east with convection. Little change is expected
elsewhere.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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