[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 152311
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT Wed Mar 15 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough axis extends from the coast of Africa near
06N10W to 03N13W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis
extends from 03N13W to 01N35W to the coast of South America near
03S41W. Isolated moderate convection is from 01N-06N between 13W-
17W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04S-03N between 39W-
50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 15/2100 UTC, a 1031 mb high is centered over Arkansas near
34N92W producing surface ridging along 90W over the Gulf of
Mexico. Broken, cold air stratocumulus clouds are over the E
Gulf E of 88W. 10-20 kt N to NE winds are over Florida and the E
Gulf, with cold air advection persisting. The W Gulf and Texas
has 10-20 kt E to SE winds with a slight warming trend. In the
upper levels, the base of a large longwave trough is over the
Gulf of Mexico with axis along 80W. Strong subsidence is over
the entire Gulf. Expect in 24 hours for scattered showers to be
over the Bay of Campeche with surface return flow.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

As of 15/2100 UTC, a quasi-stationary front extends from E Cuba
near 21N75W to E Honduras near 15N84W. Scattered showers are
within 90 nm of the front. 10-15 kt NE winds are N of front. A
surface trough is over the E Caribbean from 17N64W to 10N64W
moving W. The remainder of the Caribbean Sea has 10-25 kt
tradewinds with strongest winds along the coast of N Colombia.
Scattered showers are over the Leeward and Windward Islands,
Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica, the higher elevations of Cuba,
the Cayman Islands, N Nicaragua, Honduras, and Guatemala. More
scattered showers are inland over N Colombia, Panama, and Costa
Rica. In the upper levels, an upper level high is centered over
the E Caribbean near 13N69W. Upper level subsidence is over the
E Caribbean E of 75W. Upper level moisture is over the W
Caribbean and Central America. Expect the front to remain quasi-
stationary for the next 24 hours with showers. Also expect over
the next 24 hours for the showers over the Leeward and Windward
Islands, to move W to 70W, S of Hispaniola.

...HISPANIOLA...

Scattered showers are over Hispaniola due to low level moisture
in the tradewind flow, and the onset of additional prefrontal
showers. Expect little change over the next 24 hours.


ATLANTIC OCEAN...

As of 15/2100 UTC, a cold front over the W Atlantic extends from
31N64W to E Cuba near 21N75W. Scattered moderate convection is
within 90 nm of the front N of 26N. Scattered showers are
elsewhere within 90 nm of the front. A reinforcing cold front
over the W Atlantic extends from 31N69W to the N Bahamas at
26N78W. Overcast, cold air stratocumulus clouds are NW of the
front. A 1038 mb high is centered over the central Atlantic near
42N38W with surface ridge axis extending SSW to 22N58W. A
surface trough is over the E Atlantic from 22N35W to 16N36W.
Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the trough. Expect over
the next 24 hours for the W Atlantic fronts to merge, and for
the resultant cold front to move E to 31N59W with convection.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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