[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151755
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
154 PM EDT Wed Mar 15 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia
near 06N10W to 05N12W. The ITCZ continues from 05N12W, to 05N17W
02N30W 03N38W, to the Equator along 39W, to 01S43W. Convective
precipitation: scattered to numerous strong from 02N southward
between 43W and 50W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
from 03N to 06N between 12W and 19W. Isolated moderate elsewhere
from 06N southward from 60W eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico from 25N
northward. This cyclonic wind flow is part of the larger-scale
trough and cyclonic wind flow that are pushing the current
Atlantic Ocean-to-NW Caribbean Sea cold front.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire area. A surface
ridge passes through southern Mississippi and SE Louisiana, to
the Yucatan Peninsula.

Gale-force winds are blowing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec on the
eastern Pacific Ocean side of southern Mexico. Please read the
Eastern Pacific Ocean HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03
KNHC...and the Eastern Pacific Ocean TROPICAL WEATHER
DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...for more details.

...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR:  none.

MVFR: KXIH and KIKT.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: MVFR in the inland areas of the Deep South. MVFR in
Angleton/Lake Jackson and in Galveston, and in the southern part
of the Houston metropolitan area and surrounding smaller
communities. from LOUISIANA to FLORIDA: VFR.

...FROM THE EASTERN U.S.A. AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA...INTO THE NW CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow moves from the NW corner of the
Caribbean Sea, across Cuba and the Bahamas, toward 32N60W in the
Atlantic Ocean. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of
Mexico from 25N northward. Deep layer cyclonic wind flow covers
the Atlantic Ocean from Bermuda westward, and in the eastern half
of the U.S.A. A cold front is just to the east of Bermuda,
continuing to 30N66W 26N70W, across SE Cuba, into eastern
Honduras. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong from 27N northward between 55W and 68W.
Rainshowers are possible elsewhere within 300 nm to the NW of the
line 27N65W 20N74W, and everywhere to the NW of 20N74W 16N80W
12N83W.

...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire area.
An upper level ridge extends from Colombia to southern Guatemala.

A surface trough is along 62W/63W, from 11N to 23N. Convective
precipitation: scattered to broken low level clouds and possible
rainshowers are from 10N to 20N between 60W and 67W in the
Caribbean Sea, and from 20N to 24N between 60W and 64W in the
Atlantic Ocean.

24-hour rainfall amounts, for the period ending at 15/1200 UTC,
according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
TABLES, MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC, are: 0.37 in Montego Bay in
Jamaica, and 0.11 in Guadeloupe.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level wind flow is curving anticyclonically across the
island.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: VFR. for the
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR. Santo Domingo/La Romana/Punta
Cana: VFR. Santiago/Puerto Plata: VFR.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that SW wind flow will
move across the area, with the current ridge. The GFS MODEL
forecast for 500 MB shows that the anticyclonic wind flow/SW wind
flow will move across the area during the next 48 hours. It is
possible that the ridge that will be affecting Hispaniola at
500 mb may shift its position a bit here and there during the
next 48 hours, thus accounting for the variations in wind
direction. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that
anticyclonic wind flow will cover the western half and possibly
the western two-thirds of Hispaniola during the next 48 hours.
The rest of the area will receive NE wind flow, being on the
western side of an slowly- moving and advancing inverted trough.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Deep layer cyclonic wind flow, with a trough, covers the area
from 10N northward between 20W and 56W. A cyclonic circulation
center is near 19N41W. A surface trough is along 33W/34W from 17N
to 22N. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible in the
areas of cyclonic wind flow.

A surface ridge passes through 32N47 to 28N52W, and 22N59W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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