[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121013
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
612 AM EDT Sun Mar 12 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop across the offshore
waters of the Carolinas Monday increasing the pressure gradient
between the low and high pressure anchored to the N across much of
the NE CONUS. Near gale to gale force E-SE winds are expected to
materialize by Monday afternoon and persist through Monday night
across the SW North Atlc waters N of 28N between 70W-74W in
association with a frontal boundary. See latest NWS High Seas
Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more
details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Monsoon Trough axis extends from the African coast near
06N10W to 04N18W to 04N26W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone
axis extends from 04N26W to 01N32W to the Equator near 37W.
Widely scattered moderate convection is from 01N-06N between 07W-
23W. Isolated moderate convection is S of 04N between 25W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
While upper level west-southwesterly flow prevails over much of
the Gulf basin this morning...pockets of mid-level energy are
noted on water vapor imagery embedded within weak shortwave
troughing over the northern Gulf coast and SE Texas supporting a
1015 mb low centered near 28N96W and a surface trough extending
NE from the low to 29N93W to 29N89W. In addition...a cold front
meanders from central Georgia to coastal Louisiana and across
central Texas. Scattered showers and isolated tstms are occurring
N of a line from 23N98W to 29N83W...including a large portion of
the inland coastal plain from central Georgia to SW Louisiana
this morning. Otherwise...the remainder of the basin is under the
influence of gentle to moderate E-SE winds and mostly clear
skies. The area of low pressure across the NW Gulf waters is
forecast to drift SE across the western Gulf through Monday as
fresh to strong N-NE winds occur N of the frontal boundary along
27N/28N. The low will weaken by late Monday into Tuesday across
the central Gulf waters as the remainder of the frontal boundary
will push SE and eventually E of the basin by Tuesday afternoon.
High pressure will then build in Tuesday providing moderate N-NE
winds.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
The basin continues to be under the influence of relatively dry
and stable conditions aloft due to an upper level ridge. While
overall conditions at the surface remain fairly tranquil...low-
level cloudiness and isolated shower activity is occurring across
the Mona and Windward Passage regions and across Hispaniola this
morning generally N of 16N between 67W-78W. Moderate to fresh
trades are expected to continue through Wednesday.

...HISPANIOLA...
Isolated shower activity continues across the region including
the adjacent coastal waters and Mona and Windward Passages.
Conditions are expected to improve Sunday night into Monday as a
frontal boundary to the N across the SW North Atlc region moves
eastward and then N of the area.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A middle to upper level trough is noted on water vapor imagery
over the western North Atlc with axis extending from 36N51W to a
broad base near 28N62W. This troughing supports a cold front from
32N56W to 28N65W then becomes stationary to 27N74W. Widely
scattered showers and isolated tstms are occurring N of 29N within
90 nm E of the cold front. The front is forecast to move eastward
and eventually become diffuse across the central Atlc waters
between 50W-60W by Monday. Farther east...surface ridging prevails
across the remainder of the central Atlc and much of the eastern
waters anchored by a 1035 mb high centered NE of the Azores near
41N23W. The ridge axis extends from the high SW to 32N40W to
23N60W. Embedded within the southeastern periphery of the
ridge...a surface trough is analyzed from 23N20W to 30N31W
supported aloft by a mid-level low centered near 29N27W. No
significant convection is occurring with the trough...however near
gale to gale force NE winds were noted on earlier ASCAT data from
28N-35N between 15W-31W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN
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