[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 120556
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1256 AM EST Sun Mar 12 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop across the offshore
waters of the Carolinas Monday increasing the pressure gradient
between the low and high pressure anchored to the N across much of
the NE CONUS. Near gale to gale force E-SE winds are expected to
materialize by Monday afternoon through Monday night across the SW
North Atlc waters N of 28N between 70W-74W in association with a
frontal boundary. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/
WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Monsoon Trough axis extends from the African coast near 12N16W
to 06N18W to 04N22W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis
extends from 04N22W to 01N32W to the Equator near 39W. Widely
scattered moderate convection is from 02N-06N between 09W-22W.
Isolated moderate convection is S of 04N between 22W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
While upper level west-southwesterly flow prevails over much of
the Gulf basin this evening...pockets of mid-level energy are
noted on water vapor imagery embedded within weak shortwave
troughing over the northern Gulf coast and eastern Texas
supporting a 1012 mb low centered near 27N96W and a surface trough
extending N-NE from the low to 30N94W. In addition...a cold front
meanders from east-central Georgia to southern Louisiana to a
1017 mb low centered near 32N97W. Scattered showers and isolated
tstms are occurring N of a line from 24N97W to 30N85W...including
a large portion of the inland coastal plain from central Georgia
to eastern Texas this evening. Otherwise...the remainder of the
basin is under the influence of gentle to moderate E-SE winds and
mostly clear skies. The area of low pressure across the NW Gulf
waters is forecast to drift S-SE across the western Gulf through
Monday as fresh to strong N-NE winds occur N of the frontal
boundary along 27N/28N. The low will weaken by late Monday into
Tuesday across the central Gulf waters as the remainder of the
frontal boundary will push SE and eventually E of the basin by
Tuesday afternoon. High pressure will then build in Tuesday
providing moderate N-NE winds.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
The basin continues to be under the influence of relatively dry
and stable conditions aloft due to an upper level ridge. While
overall conditions at the surface remain fairly tranquil...low-
level cloudiness and isolated shower activity is occurring across
the Mona and Windward Passage regions and across Hispaniola this
evening generally N of 16N between 66W-75W. Isolated showers are
also occurring across the Lesser Antilles S of 18N between 60W-
64W. Moderate to fresh trades are expected to continue through
Wednesday.

...HISPANIOLA...
Isolated shower activity continues across the region including
the adjacent coastal waters and Mona and Windward Passages.
Conditions are expected to improve Sunday night into Monday as a
frontal boundary to the N across the SW North Atlc region moves
eastward and then N of the area.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A middle to upper level trough is noted on water vapor imagery
over the western North Atlc with axis extending from 35N54W to a
broad base near 28N62W. This troughing supports a cold front from
32N58W to 27N66W then becomes stationary to 27N75W to the Florida
peninsula near Cape Canaveral. Widely scattered showers and
isolated tstms are occurring N of 29N within 90 nm E of the cold
front. The front is forecast to move eastward and eventually
become diffuse across the central Atlc waters between 50W-60W by
Monday. Farther east...surface ridging prevails across the
remainder of the central Atlc and much of the eastern waters
anchored by a 1035 mb high centered NE of the Azores near 40N26W.
The ridge axis extends from the high SW to 32N39W to 24N62W.
Embedded within the southeastern periphery of the ridge...a
surface trough is analyzed from 24N19W to 31N27W supported aloft
by a mid-level low centered near 29N26W. No significant convection
is occurring with the trough...however near gale to gale force NE
winds were noted on recent ASCAT data from 28N35N between 15W-31W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN

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