[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110534
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1234 AM EST Sat Mar 11 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0445 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Monsoon Trough axis extends from the African coast near 07N11W
to 03N23W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
03N23W to 02N29W to the Equator near 36W. Isolated moderate
convection is S of 02N between the Prime Meridian and 03W.
Widely scattered moderate convection is S of 07N between 13-29W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
While upper level west-southwesterly flow prevails over much of
the Gulf basin this evening...mid-level energy embedded within
weak shortwave troughing over the Rio Grande river valley and
southern Texas is supporting scattered showers and isolated tstms
N of 25N W of 90W. This activity is largely focused in the
vicinity of a surface trough extending from NE Mexico near 25N98W
to 29N93W. Otherwise...the remainder of the basin is under the
influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1021 mb high centered
in the north-central Gulf waters near 29N88W. Mostly gentle to
moderate anticyclonic winds are expected across the basin Saturday
as a cold front currently across the Florida panhandle then
stationary to eastern Texas sags southward into the NE Gulf waters
by morning. Winds are expected to increase out of the N-NE
briefly into moderate to fresh breeze levels through late
Saturday morning N of the front. High pressure will then once
again briefly influence the basin Saturday night as a developing
area of low pressure across the far NW Gulf and the associated
cold front that is forecast to emerge off the Texas and Louisiana
coasts Sunday morning. The low will introduce fresh to strong E-NE
winds generally N of 26N W of 89W on Sunday gradually diminishing
through Monday as the low pushes eastward toward the Florida
peninsula.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
The basin continues to be under the influence of relatively dry
and stable conditions aloft due to an upper level ridge. While
overall conditions at the surface remain fairly tranquil...low-
level cloudiness and isolated shower activity is occurring across
the Mona Passage region and Hispaniola...as well as the Gulf of
Honduras region this evening. Isolated showers N of 15N between
67W-72W are occurring in the vicinity of a surface trough
extending from 16N72W to 22N71W across Hispaniola and isolated
showers are occurring S of 18N W of 85W...including inland
portions of Honduras...Nicaragua...Belize...and Guatemala across
Central America. Moderate to fresh trades are expected to continue
through Tuesday.

...HISPANIOLA...
Isolated shower activity continue across the region including the
adjacent coastal waters in the vicinity of a surface trough
analyzed from 16N72W to 22N71W. The troughing is expected to drift
westward and lift N of the area by Sunday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A middle to upper level trough is noted on water vapor imagery off
the eastern US seaboard with axis extending from 38N67W to a broad
base near 30N78W. This troughing supports a cold front from
32N76W to the Georgia coast near 31N81W. A pre-frontal surface
trough is also noted from the cold front near 34N70W SW to the
Florida peninsula near Daytona Beach. Widely scattered showers
and tstms are occurring N of 29N between 65W-74W with the
remainder of the SW North Atlc under the influence of a weak 1019
mb high centered near 25N79W. Farther east across the central
Atlc...another ridge prevails anchored by a pair of 1030 mb highs
centered near 28N47W and 31N39W. Finally across the eastern
Atlc...a weakening 1015 mb low is centered near 24N28W. The
associated cold front has dissipated while a dissipating
stationary front extends NE from the low center to 30N22W to the
Madeira Islands near 33N16W. Isolated showers are possible within
150 nm either side of the boundary.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN
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