[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 102358
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
658 PM EST Fri Mar 10 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough axis extends from the African coast near 06N10W
to 02N25W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
02N26W to 0N36W to the coast of Brazil near 2S42W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 0N to 06N between 11W and 26W and from
03S to 02N W of 33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Middle to upper level diffluent flow in the NW Gulf and low to
middle level abundant moisture in the W basin continue to support
scattered showers and isolated tstms N of 24N W of 90W. A surface
trough is analyzed in this region as well, which extends from
28N94W to inland NE Mexico near 22N98W. Mosaic Doppler Radar
confirms the presence of this convective activity. A thermal
trough formed over the Yucatan Peninsula during afternoon hours
will move over the Bay of Campeche at night, thus supporting a
surge of fresh to occasionally strong northeast to east winds
through Sunday night. Otherwise, the remainder of the Gulf is
under the influence of a surface ridge with mostly moderate E-SE
winds. A weak frontal boundary is forecast to clip the north-
central and NE Gulf waters tonight. Moderate to fresh N-NE winds
are briefly expected behind the front over the NE Gulf through
Saturday morning. A second and stronger cold front is forecast to
enter the northern Gulf region Sunday morning. A weak low is
expected to form along the frontal boundary dragging a cold front
across the remainder of the Gulf through early next week. Model
guidance suggests fresh to strong NE winds behind the front, and
across the NW and N-central waters on Sunday, with seas building
to 6-7 ft.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The latest ASCAT pass continue to provide observations of 20-25
kt NE-E winds over the south-central Caribbean while fresh to
locally strong trade winds are noted across the remainder of the
east and central Caribbean. These winds are forecast to diminish
tonight into Saturday across the basin as high pressure located
north of the area continues to shift farther eastward. A patch of
abundant moisture is noted between Puerto Rico and Dominican
Republic associated with a surface trough that extends from 18N68W
to 15N68W. A middle level diffluent environment aloft supports
scattered showers in both islands as well as the Mona Passage.
Shower activity associated with this surface and middle level
features will continue across Hispaniola through the remainder
weekend.

...HISPANIOLA...

A patch of abundant moisture is noted between Puerto Rico and
Dominican Republic associated with a surface trough that extends
from 18N68W to 15N68W. A middle level diffluent environment just
E-SE of the Dominican Republic supports scattered showers across
Hispaniola as well as the Mona Passage. Shower activity
associated with this surface and middle level features will
continue through the remainder weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

High pressure of 1028 mb located near 29N47W extends a ridge
westward across much of the forecast area west of 30W to NE of the
southern Bahamas. A low pressure of 1012 mb is located near
25N28W connecting a stationary front to a cold front that extends
from the low to 14N35W. A tight pressure gradient between the
ridge and this low will support near gale conditions west of the
low center. Scattered showers are in the vicinity of the low and
the stationary front N of 26N between 23W and 28W. Scatterometer
data show fresh to strong trade winds across the southern
periphery of the aforementioned high. A cold front will enter the
discussion area reaching from 31N65W to the NW Bahamas by early
Saturday morning, and from 31N58W to south Florida by Saturday
night. Fresh to strong northerly winds will briefly follow the
front through late Saturday morning.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net