[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 302302
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
702 PM EDT Sun Jul 30 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave off the west coast of Africa near 23W extends from
about 07N to 18N, moving W at 10 kt. The wave is robustly depicted
in the 700 mb GFS analyses and the SUNY-Albany Tropical Wave
Diagnostics. METEOSAT10 infrared imagery shows a mid-level
circulation, though it is likely that only a trough exists at the
surface. No deep convection is currently associated with this
wave, though scattered showers are occurring within 120 nm of the
wave axis south of about 13N.

A tropical wave in the central Atlantic near 40W extends from
near 07N to 17N, moving W around 15 kt. The wave is evident both
from the broad surface circulation as well as a maximum of Total
Precipitable Water east of the wave axis. No deep convection is
currently associated with this wave, though scattered showers are
occurring 120 nm east of the wave axis south of about 15N. A
large Saharan Air Layer is located just north and west of the
tropical wave.

A tropical wave in the central Atlantic near 50W extends from
near 06N to 16N, moving W at 15 kt. This wave is very indistinct
with little signs evident in the GFS or ECMWF-based Tropical Wave
Diagnostics, TPW, or surface observation. No deep convection or
showers are likely associated with this wave.

A tropical wave over the E Caribbean near 62W extends from near
09N to 18N, moving W at 15 kt. The wave is readily apparent in the
12Z rawindsondes in the Lesser Antilles as well as the TPW, which
shows a maximum just east of the wave axis. Only a slight trough
is noted at the surface from station observations. Scattered
moderate convection is observed south of 12N within 120 nm east of
the wave axis.

A tropical wave in the W Caribbean near 84W extends from near 07N
to 20N, moving W at 20 kt. The wave is difficult to identify and
is only identifiable as a maximum in the TPW east of the wave
axis. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted
south of 16N west of 80W including portions of Honduras,
Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama due to interaction with the
eastern North Pacific monsoon trough and diurnal heating over
land.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the west African coast near 16N17W
to 11N32W to 08N48W. The ITCZ extends from 09N52W to 10N60W.
Scattered moderate convection is occurring within 120 nm of the
trough axis east of 19W, from 07N to 11N between 25W and 32W, and
within 60 nm of the trough axis between 43W and 46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 2100 UTC, a cold front extends from northern Florida near
29N83W to an embedded 1011 mb low over the northeastern Gulf near
28N85W. The front continues from the low to the eastern Texas
coast as a stationary front. Scattered moderate and isolated deep
convection is occurring within 240 nm south of the front
boundary, including south Florida. Winds are 20 kt or less across
the Gulf. Expect in 24 hours for the cold front to dip to central
Florida and then become stationary on Tuesday. Scattered moderate
and isolated deep convection is likely to continue as substantial
moisture is being advected toward the front from southerlies in
the western Caribbean.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are moving across the Caribbean; see above.
 Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted
south of 16N west of 80W including portions of Honduras,
Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama due to interaction with the
eastern North Pacific monsoon trough and diurnal heating over
land. While most of the Caribbean has light winds, scatterometer
data and buoy 42058 shows 20-25 kt tradewinds over the central
Caribbean. Expect the southwestern Caribbean to continue to
produce convection over the next couple of days as well in
association with the wave currently over 62W as it moves
westward.

...HISPANIOLA...

Presently scattered moderate convection is occurring over northern
Haiti and scattered showers elsewhere. Expect more moderate
convection and showers Monday and Tuesday afternoon/evening due to
diurnal heating.


ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Three tropical waves are moving across the tropical North
Atlantic; see above. A cold front extends from northeastern
Florida to 32N75W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is occurring within 240 nm south of the front. Expect
continued convection over the next two days as the front stalls by
Monday. A large 1029 mb high is centered over the central
Atlantic near 35N42W producing fair weather and winds are 20 kt or
less across the tropical North Atlantic.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Landsea
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