[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301748
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
148 PM EDT Sun Jul 30 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave off the W coast of Africa extends from 19N21W to
07N21W, moving W at 10 kt. The wave is in a region of low to
moderate vertical wind shear and is underneath upper level
divergent flow. CIRA LPW imagery show abundant low level moisture
associated with this wave. Numerous heavy showers are from 07N-14N
between 20W-27W.

A tropical wave in the central Atlantic extends from 18N37W to
07N38W, moving W at 10 kt. SSMI TPW imagery depicts the wave
with a moderate moisture area. The wave is in a region of low
vertical wind shear and has Saharan dry air and dust north of 13N.
Scattered showers are from 06N-10N between 35W-42W.

A tropical wave in the central Atlantic extends from 16N48W to
07N49W, moving W at 15 kt. SSMI TPW imagery shows a spike of
moisture south of 26N between 46W-51W. The wave is in a region of
low vertical wind shear, and is being severely affected by
Saharan dry air and dust east and west of the wave axis. No
significant convection is noted.

A tropical wave over the E Caribbean extends from 18N60W to
09N60W, moving W at 15 kt. The wave is in a moderate to strong
vertical wind shear environment and continues to be severely
affected by Saharan dry air and dust intrusion to its environment
N of 14N. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over
the Windward Islands from 08N-13N between 57W-62W.

A tropical wave in the W Caribbean extends from 20N81W to 07N82W,
moving W at 20 kt. The wave is associated with abundant low level
moisture, particularly in the SW Caribbean. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is along the coast of Nicaragua from
11N-14N between 81W-85W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 14N17W to 11N22W to 11N31W to
09N36W to 08N47W. The ITCZ extends from 07N51W to 10N58W. Besides
the convection mentioned in the tropical wave section, scattered
moderate to strong convection is along the coast of W Africa from
10N-14N between 14W-18W. Scattered moderate convection is from
07N-13N between 27W-35W. Scattered moderate convection is from
06N-10N between 40W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 1500 UTC, a cold front extends from N Florida near 30N81W to
an embedded 1011 mb low over the NE Gulf near 29N85W to the Texas
coast near 29N96W. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm
S of the front. In addition, scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are over S Florida, the Straits of Florida, and W
Cuba. In the upper levels, a large upper level high is centered
over central Texas near 32N100W producing NE to E flow over the
Gulf of Mexico. Expect in 24 hours for the cold front to dip to
Tampa Florida with convection extending S to the Straits of
Florida.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. See above.
Elsewhere, the extension of the Pacific monsoon trough is
producing scattered moderate convection over the SW Caribbean,
Costa Rica, Panama, and N Colombia, S of 12N. Scatterometer data
shows 10-25 kt trades with strongest winds over the central
Caribbean. In the upper levels, a small upper level low is
centered over W Cuba near 21N80W. A small upper level high is
centered over the SW Caribbean near 12N79W. Expect the SW
Caribbean to continue to produce convection over the next 24
hours.

...HISPANIOLA...

Presently scattered showers are over Hispaniola due to afternoon
heating. Expect more showers Mon afternoon and evening due to max
heatANTIC OCEAN...

Three tropical waves are moving across the basin. See above.
A 1010 mb low has formed on a cold front off the coast of Georgia
near 31N80W. Scattered moderate convection extends 180 nm S of the
low over the W Atlantic. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are over the N Bahamas. A large 1029 mb high is
centered over the central Atlantic near 34N41W producing fair
weather. In the upper levels, a trough is over the W Atlantic N of
28N and W of 70W supporting the surface low and front. A small
upper level low is centered near 35N57W also producing similar
precipitation within 420 nm S of the center.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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