[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 300605
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Sun Jul 30 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the east Atlantic with axis extending from
17N32W to 06N33W, moving west at 10-15 kt within the last 24
hours. The wave is in a region of low vertical wind shear, but is
being severely affected by Saharan dry air and dust intrusion to
its environment. This dry air and dust are affecting mainly the
central and nothern environment of the wave. Shallow moisture
confined to the monsoon trough support scattered moderate
convection from 06N to 10N between 32W and 43W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlc with axis extending from
18N45W to 05N45W, moving W at 15 kt within the last 24 hours. The
wave is in a region of moderate to strong vertical wind shear, and
continues to be severely affected by Saharan dry air and dust
intrusion to its environment, which is limiting convection to
scattered showers from 05N to 10N between 41W and 50W.

A tropical wave is E of the Lesser Antilles with axis extending
from 21N55W to 09N57W, moving west at 10-15 kt within the last 24
hours. The wave is in a moderate vertical wind shear environment
and continues to be affected by Saharan dry air and dust intrusion
to its environment, which is inhibiting the development of
deep convection. Scattered to isolated showers are confined to the
ITCZ region from 08N to 12N between 53W and 58W.

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis extending
from 20N74W to 11N74W, moving W at 20 kt within the last 24
hours. Water vapor imagery depict dry subsident air over the wave
also noticed in the CIRA LPW imagery. Besides dry air, strong
vertical wind shear is in the central Caribbean, which is
influencing the lack of deep convection at this time.

A tropical wave is moving across Honduras and El Salvador into
EPAC waters. Its axis extends from 16N87W to 06N89W, moving W at
20-25 kt within the last 24 hours. Heavy showers and tstms are
over the western half of Honduras and across El Salvador extending
to the Gulf of Honduras S of 17N W of 85W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 18N16W to 12N23W to 09N39W. The
ITCZ extends from 09N47W to 10N56W. Besides the convection
mentioned in the Tropical Waves section above, numerous heavy
showers and tstms are off the coast of W Africa potentially
associated with a tropical wave. The area of this convection is
from 07N to 15N between 17W and 25W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is moving across the SE CONUS being supported by a
deep layered trough aloft that extends to far W Atlc waters. A
pre-frontal surface trough extends from SE Georgia along northern
Florida to SE Louisiana coastal waters near 29N89W. Shallow
moisture along the northern Gulf along with the aforementioned
features support scattered showers and isolated tstms N of 28N E
of 90W. The western basin is under the influence of a weak
surface ridge anchored by a 1014 mb high near 26N91W that provides
variable gentle to light winds. Westerlies of the same magnitude
dominate over the eastern half of the Gulf. The front will dip
south over the northern Gulf waters this Sunday morning and is
forecast to stall over central Florida during Sunday night.
Scattered heavy showers and tstms are expected over the NE and SE
Gulf during this period.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave moving across Honduras is generating heavy showers
extending to the Gulf of Honduras. A second tropical wave is
moving over central Caribbean waters, however lacking deep
c tropical waves section above for further details.
An upper level low persists over E Cuba supporting scattered
showers and tstms over southern coastal and adjacent waters. This
upper level low along with a broad ridge covering the W Caribbean
generate diffluent flow aloft, which is supporting isolated
showers and tstms in the Windward Passage and W Haiti coastal
waters. Otherwise, the extension of the Pacific's monsoon trough
is producing numerous heavy showers and tstms over the southwest
Caribbean from 10N to 12N W of 79W. A new tropical wave will be
entering the E basin Sunday with possible isolated showers.

...HISPANIOLA...

Diffluent flow to the E of an upper-level low situated over E Cuba
along with shallow moisture in the region support isolated
showers and tstms across the Windward Passage and W Haiti coastal
waters as well as southern Dominican Republic. Similar activity is
expected to continue through Sunday night followed by some
pockets of dry air that will support fair weather conditions early
on Monday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Diffluent flow aloft between a deep layer trough over the E CONUS,
and a broad upper ridge anchored over Texas extending SE to the
norther Bahamas support isolated showers N of 23N W of 71W while
the upper low over E Cuba support scattered showers over the Great
Bahama Bank. Three tropical waves are moving across the basin.
See the section above for details. Otherwise, a broad surface
ridge anchored by a 1029 mb high near 33N40W covers the remaining
basin and supports fair weather. A cold front will move into SW N
Atlc waters today with showers and fresh winds.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
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