[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 292341
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
741 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the east Atlantic with axis extending from
17N28W to 07N28W, moving west at 10 kt. SSMI TPW imagery depicts
the wave in an area of abundant moisture. Isolated showers are
observed along the wave mainly south of the monsoon trough south
of 11N between 26W-30W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending
from 18N43W to 06N43W, moving west at 10 kt. SSMI TPW imagery
shows a narrow spike of moisture between 38W-45W. The wave is
being severely affected by Saharan dry air and dust inhibiting
convection.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending
from 21N55W to 09N56W, moving west at 15 kt. The wave continues
to be severely affected by Saharan dry air and dust intrusion to
its environment. No significant convection is noted at this time.

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis extending
from 20N72W to 08N73W, moving west at 10 kt. The wave is in an
environment where Water vapor imagery depicts dry subsident air
over the wave also noticed in the CIRA LPW imagery.

A tropical wave is over the Yucatan Peninsula and Central America
extending its axis from in the west Caribbean with axis extending
from 21N89W to 13N88W then into the Pacific to 06N87W, moving west
at 15 kt. SSMI TPW imagery depicts the wave in an area of abundant
moisture. An upper-level low is centered over western Cuba extending
its trough west across the Yucatan Peninsula, helping in the
generation of scattered moderate convection over the Yucatan and
Central America.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 12N16W to 11N29W to 08N45W. The
ITCZ extends from 08N45W to 09N61W. Besides the convection
mentioned in the Tropical Waves section above, scattered moderate
convection is along and west of the coast of west Africa from
08N-16N and east of 23W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is moving across the southeast U.S. and western
Atlantic north of the area. The proximity of this boundary is
generating cloudiness and isolated showers over the northern Gulf
of Mexico waters and the Florida Peninsula mainly north of 27N
and east of 95W. The northern portion of a tropical wave is moving
across the Yucatan Peninsula. Please refer to the section above
for details. The remainder of the basin is under the influence of
a surface ridge that extends across the basin from the Atlantic.
Scatterometer data depicts a light to moderate anticyclonic flow
across the area, with highest winds along the northern portion of
the basin north of 28N. Expect for the front to dip south over
the northern Gulf waters during the next 24-36 hours with winds
shifting to the north. Moderate to fresh northerly winds will
prevail behind the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. See the section
above for details. The extension of the Pacific's monsoon trough
is producing scattered moderate convection over the southwest
Caribbean and portions of Central America mainly south of 12N. In
the upper levels, an upper-level low is centered over western
Cuba near 22N80W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are observed
in the periphery of this low affecting the western half of the
basin mainly west of 72W. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to
fresh trades with strongest winds over the south-central
Caribbean. A similar scenario is expected during the next 24
hours.

...HISPANIOLA...

Scattered showertern Hispaniola due to the northern
extent of a tropical wave and afternoon heating. Similar activity
is expected during the next 24 hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Three tropical waves are moving across the basin. See the section
above for details. A broad and stationary 1027 mb surface high is
centered over the central Atlantic near 33N42W supporting fair
weather across the basin. The only area with a few showers is
observed along the norther portion of a surface trough that
extends from 29N60W to 22N60W. This trough is a reflection of an
upper-level low centered near 30N57W. Little changes are expected
for the rest of the weekend.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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