[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 092324
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
724 PM EDT Sun Jul 9 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the far east Atlantic with axis extending
from 16N22W to 06N23W, moving west at 15 kt. Abundant moisture
prevails within this wave, as noted in TPW imagery. Scattered
moderate convection is along the southern portion of the wave
axis, where it intersects the monsoon trough, from 09N-12N
between 21W- 27W.

Another tropical wave is over the far eastern Atlantic with axis
extending from 20N33W to 05N34W, moving west at 10 kt. The wave's
axis is the leading edge of a moisture surge that prevails east
of 33W. The Meteosat 9 imagery depicts an extensive area of
African Saharan dry air and dust to the west of the wave. Isolated
moderate convection remains limited to the far southern extent of
the wave's axis, where it intersects with the monsoon trough, from
04N-08N between 33W-40W.

A tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean with its axis
extending from 23N62W to 13N66W, moving west at 15-20 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is over the northern portions of the
wave axis from 20N-23N between 59W-68W. This convection is forecast
to move west to Hispaniola and the SE Bahamas over the next 48
hours. Presently 20-25 kt winds are noted over the northern
portions of this wave, outside of convection.

A tropical wave is over the western Caribbean with axis extending
from 22N81W to 11N81W, moving west at 10 kt. The latest water
vapor imagery shows subsidence and associated dry air over the
central portions of the wave axis. Scattered moderate convection
is over the northern portion over Cuba, and similar convection is
over the southern portion near Costa Rica.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 14N17W to 09N23W to 07N34W to
07N45W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 07N45W to
06N53W. Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical wave
section, scattered moderate convection is along the coast of South
America from 04N-08N between 53W-56W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is along the coast of Mexico from Tampico to
Veracruz producing scattered moderate convection over the W
Gulf of Mexico from 18N-25N between 94W-98W. A 1019 mb high is
centered over the NE Gulf near 27N86W with only 5 kt anticyclonic
winds. Radar imagery shows scattered moderate convection over W
Cuba. Widely scattered moderate convection is over the Straits of
Florida, Florida, and the other N Gulf States from N Florida to
Texas. In the upper levels, a small upper level high is centered
over the W Gulf of Mexico near 23N95W. A small upper level low is
centered over the SE Gulf near 23N85W. Expect convection to
persist over the SW Gulf for the next 24 hours. Also expect the
more convection over the NE Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are moving across the Caribbean. See above.
In addition, scattered moderate convection is over E Cuba, and E
Hispaniola. Scattered moderate convection is also over the SW
Caribbean, Panama, Costa Rica, and S Nicaragua. 10-25 kt
tradewinds are over most of the Caribbean with strongest winds
along the coast of N Colombia. In the upper levels, a small upper
level low is centered over the W Caribbean near 19N80W. Expect
the two tropical waves to move W over the next 24 hours with
convection.

...HISPANIOLA...

Presently scattered moderate convection is over E Hispaniola due
to a tropical wave. Expect Hispaniola to have more convection and
showers over the next 24 hours due to this tropical wave.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Three tropical waves are analyzed over the tropical Atlantic. See
the section above for details. A broad 1032 mb surface high is
centered north of our area near 37N40W with fair weather. An
extensive area of African Saharan dust is situated over the
central Atlantic and is gradually shifting westward.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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