[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091727
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
127 PM EDT Sun Jul 9 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the far east Atlantic with axis extending
from 16N21W to 06N20W, moving west at about 15 kt. Abundant
moisture prevails within this wave, as noted in TPW imagery.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is mostly along the
southern portion of the wave where it is interaction with the
monsoon trough south of 12N between 19W-23W.

Another tropical wave is over the far eastern Atlantic with axis
extending from 19N31W to 06N33W, moving west at 10 kt. The wave's
axis is the leading edge of a moisture surge that prevails east of
31W. The Meteosat 9 imagery depicts an extensive area of African
Saharan dry air and dust to the west of the wave. Convection
remains limited to the far southern extent of the wave's axis,
where it interacts with the monsoon trough and ITCZ.

A tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean with its axis
extending from 24N60W to 13N64W, moving west around 15-20 kt.
Moderate moisture prevails along the wave's axis with maximum
remaining north of 18N between 57W-63W, where scattered moderate
convection is observed. The active portion of the wave is forecast
enhance convection across the northern portions of the Leeward
Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola through the next 24 hours.

A tropical wave is over the western Caribbean with axis extending
from 22N78W to 11N79W, moving west at 10 kt. The latest water
vapor imagery shows subsidence and associated dry air over and
around the wave's environment, which is inhibiting convection at
this time.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 17N16W to 09N30W. The Intertropical
Convergence Zone extends from 08N36W to 04N51W. No convection is
noted aside from the one related to the tropical waves. See above
for details.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1018 mb high is centered over the NE Gulf near 27N87W. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms are developing in the periphery of this
high affecting the Florida Peninsula, Straits, and the adjacent
waters east of 84W. To the north, a persistent line of showers and
thunderstorms is observed along the coasts of Louisiana and
south-eastern Texas. This activity reaches the waters north of
29N between 89W-94W. A surface trough extends from 25N97W to
19N95W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 19N-25N
and west of 92W. Scatterometer data depicts a light to gentle
anticyclonic flow across most of the basin except the Bay of
Campeche, where gentle to moderate easterly winds prevail (near
the surface trough). Little change is expected through the next 24
hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are moving across the Caribbean. See the
section above for details. Scattered moderate convection prevails
south of 12N between 77W-84W. This activity is enhanced by the
vicinity of the monsoon trough that currently extends across
Panama to northern Colombia. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to
moderate trades across most of the basin except between 68W-78W
where moderate to fresh winds prevail. Expect for the tropical
waves to continue moving west enhancing convection.

...HISPANIOLA...

Fair weather prevails across the island at this time. Expect
Hispaniola to have scattered showers over the next 24 hours due
to a tropical wave approaching from the east.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Three tropical waves are analyzed over the tropical Atlantic. See
the section above for details. A broad 1031 mb surface high is
centered north of our area near 37N40W with fair weather. An
extensive area of African Saharan dust is situated over the
central Atlantic and is gradually shifting westward.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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