[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 082345
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
745 PM EDT Sat Jul 8 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along the coast of W Africa with axis extending
from 15N15W to 06N16W, moving W at 15 kt. Abundant moisture
prevails within this wave, as noted in TPW imagery. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is mostly W of the wave axis from
10N-16N between 15W-21W.

Another tropical wave is over the far eastern Atlantic with axis
extending from 18N25W to 07N30W, moving W at 10 kt. Atmospheric
moisture continues to increase along and to the east of the wave.
The Meteosat 9 imagery depicts an extensive area of African
Saharan dry air and dust to its west. Convection remains limited
to across the far southern extent of the wave's axis, where it
intersects the monsoon trough.

A tropical wave, remnants of Tropical Depression Four, is over
the central Atlantic with its axis extending from 23N57W to
11N59W, moving west-northwest around 15-20 kt. The atmospheric
environment surrounding the wave is very moist as observed in TPW
loop series. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
from 20N-23N between 56W-60W. The active portion of the wave is
forecast to pass to the northeast of the Leeward Islands by Sunday
evening with possible brief gusty winds and squalls. It is later
forecast to approach the SE Bahamas on Monday.

A tropical wave is over the Caribbean Sea with axis extending
from 23N72W to 10N73W, moving W at 10 kt. The latest water vapor
imagery shows subsidence and associated dry air over and around
the wave's environment, which is inhibiting convection at this
time, except, scattered showers are noted over Hispaniola.

A tropical wave extends from the Bay of Campeche to S Mexico to
the EPAC from 23N95W to 07N97W, moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave is
embedded in a very moist and unstable atmospheric environment.
Scattered moderate convection prevails over the Gulf of Mexico
from 19N-23N between 94W-98W. More convection is over the Pacific
waters. The wave is forecast to move completely over inland
Mexico tonight.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from 11N15W to 09N24W to 07N39W. The
Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 07N39W to 04N51W.
Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves over the
far eastern Atlantic, scattered moderate convection is from 06N-
10N between 24W-28W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A tropical wave is over the Bay of Campeche and S Mexico
producing scattered moderate convection. See above. 20-25 kt winds
are associated with this wave. A 1019 mb high is centered over
the NE Gulf near 27N86W with only 5 kt anticyclonic winds. Radar
imagery shows scattered moderate convection over W Cuba. Isolated
moderate convection is over the Straits of Florida, Florida, and
the other N Gulf States to Texas. In the upper levels, a small
upper level high is centered over the W Gulf of Mexico near
23N95W. A small upper level low is centered over the SE Gulf near
25N85W. Expect the tropical wave to move W over the next 24 hours
with convection. Also expect the surface high to dissipate over
the next 24 hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is moving across the central Caribbean. See
above. Scattered moderate convection is over W Cuba. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is over the SW Caribbean,
Panama, Costa Rica, and S Nicaragua. 10-25 kt tradewinds are
over most of the Caribbean with strongest winds along the coast
of N Colombia. In the upper levels, a small upper level high is
centered over the central Caribbean near 16N77W. Expect the
central Caribbean tropical wave to move W over the next 24 hours
with convection. Also expect convection over the northern Leeward
Islands due to another tropical wave, the remnants of Tropical
Depression Four, within the next 24 hours.

...HISPANIOLA...

Presently scattered showers are over Hispaniola due to a tropical
wave. Expect Hispaniola to have more scattered showers over the
next 24 hours due to this tropical wave.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Three tropical waves are analyzed over the tropical Atlantic. See
above. Scattered showers are over the N Bahamas. A broad 1030 mb
surface high is centered north of our area near 36N38W producing
fair weather. An extensive area of African Saharan dust is
situated over the eastern and central Atlantic E of 53W, and is
gradually shifting westward.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net