[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081734
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
134 PM EDT Sat Jul 8 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has been introduced to this analysis. This wave
extends its axis along the African coast from 14N15W to 06N14W.
Abundant moisture prevails within this wave, as noted in TPW
imagery.

Another tropical wave is over the far eastern Atlantic with axis
extending from 18N24W to 07N29W, moving westward around 10 kt.
Atmospheric moisture continues to increase along and to the east
of the wave. The Meteosat 9 imagery along with depicts an
extensive area of African Saharan dry air and dust to its west.
Convection remains limited to across the far southern extent of
the wave's axis, where it intersects the monsoon trough.

A tropical wave, remnants of Tropical Depression Four, is over
the central Atlantic with its axis extending from 23N55W to
11N57W, moving west-northwest around 15-20 kt. The atmospheric
environment surrounding the wave is very moist as observed in
TPW loop series. At this time, scattered moderate convection
prevails north of 18N between 52W-62W. The wave is forecast to
pass to the northeast of the Leeward Islands by Sunday evening
attendant with possible brief gusty winds and squalls over
portions of the northeast Caribbean. It is then forecast to
approach the SE Bahamas on Monday.

A tropical wave is over the Caribbean Sea with axis extending
from 20N70W to 10N71W, moving westward at around 5-10 kt. The
latest water vapor imagery shows subsidence and associated dry
air over and around the wave's environment, which is inhibiting
convection at this time.

A tropical wave extends from the Bay of Campeche and southeastern
Mexico to the EPAC. The axis is from 23N94W to 05N96W, moving
westward near 10-15 kt. The wave is embedded in a very moist and
unstable atmospheric environment. Scattered moderate convection
prevails over the Gulf of Mexico from 19N-25N between 93W-98W. An
area of scattered moderate convection is also noted over the
Pacific waters from 05N-14N between 93W-99W. The wave is forecast
to move across the remainder of the SW Gulf through early this
evening, then move inland Mexico tonight.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from 14N17W to 07N27W to 07N38W. The
Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 07N38W to 02N51W.
Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves over the
far eastern Atlantic, scattered moderate convection is along and
within 50 nm on either side of the Monsoon Trough between 22W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A tropical wave is over the Bay of Campeche and extends southward
to southeastern Mexico. See the section above for details. A 1019
mb high is centered over the eastern Gulf near 27N84W. It is
producing light to gentle anticyclonic winds across the eastern
part of the Gulf mainly north of 26N. Water vapor imagery
indicates that an upper-level low is near 25N84W, and is trending
to shift southward. Ample present moisture and instability to its
east and southeast is bringing scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms to the E Gulf waters and Florida Peninsula.
Expect for a similar weather pattern to continue through the next
24 hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave axis extends along 71W. See the section above for
details. Scattered moderate convection is over the southwest
Caribbean south of 14N and west of 79W in the vicinity of the
monsoon trough that currently extends over Costa Rica and Panama.
This activity will persist through the weekend. Fair weather
prevails elsewhere. The pressure gradient across the area supports
gentle to moderate trades across the Caribbean, except for
stronger winds in the moderate to fresh range along the coast of
Colombia. These conditions will continue into early next week.

...HISPANIOLA...

Fair weather is observed across the island at this time. A
tropical wave extends along 71W. As the wave continues moving
west through the area, isolated showers could develop through the
next 24 hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The remnants of Tropical Depression Four, now a tropical wave,
is over the central tropical Atlantic while 2 tropical waves are
moving over the far eastern tropical Atlantic. See the section above
for details on these features. Elsewhere, a broad surface high
extends across the area anchored by a stationary 1031 mb center
located near 35N40W. The ridge will change little through Sunday,
then begin to lift back to the north on Monday. Water vapor
imagery shows an elongated upper-level low (TUTT) centered near
29N55W lifting northward. This low is reflected at the surface as
a trough that extends from 31N54W to 28N55W. Isolated showers are
along the trough. An extensive area of African Saharan dust is
situated over the eastern and central Atlantic E of 53W, and is
gradually migrating westward.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA

This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net