[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021025
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
625 AM EDT Sun Jul 2 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Gale Warning...

A strong pressure gradient over the south central Caribbean is
supporting strong to gale-force winds from 11N to 13N between 73W
and 77W. These conditions will continue through late this
morning. For more details, please refer to the High Seas Forecast
product under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends its axis from 17N20W to 05N20W and it has
been moving west at about 10-15 kt within the last 24 hours. The
wave is in a moderate moist environment with patches of dry air
according to CIRA LPW imagery. Shallow moisture and upper-level
diffluence support scattered showers in the vicinity of the wave's
axis mainly south of 10N between 17W-23W.

A tropical wave is in the east Atlantic with axis extending from
15N31W to 04N33W, moving west at 5-10 kt within the last 24
hours. The wave is in a moderate moist environment with patches of
dry air according to CIRA LPW imagery. Satellite enhanced imagery
show Saharan dry air and dust intrusion in the wave's environment.
Shallow moisture and upper-level diffluence support scattered
showers from 10N-12N between 30W-35W.

A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Caribbean with axis
extending from 18N60W to 07N64W, moving west at 15-20 kt within
the last 24 hours. The wave is in a moderate moist environment
with patches of dry air according to CIRA LPW imagery. Shallow
moisture and upper-level diffluence support isolated showers
along the wave's axis.

The tropical wave that was previously extending across the west
Caribbean has moved mostly over Central America and the EPAC. Its
axis extends from 18N87W to 09N89W, moving west at 20 kt within
the last 24 hours. The wave is in an area of abundant moisture
that combined with a diffluent flow aloft to the west of the
wave's axis supports scattered moderate convection currently
affecting portions of Guatemala, Belize, Honduras, Nicaragua, as
well as the adjacent waters south of 18N west of 84W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from the west coast of Africa near
13N17W to 09N36W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from
09N36W to 08N54W. The convection observed near these boundaries
is mostly related to tropical waves. Refer to the section above
for details.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1021 mb surface high is centered near 28N86W. With this,
surface ridging extends across the whole basin. An area of
scattered moderate convection is moving west across the Yucatan
Peninsula with the thermal trough reaching the Bay of Campeche
mainly south of 20N between 90W-97W. A light to gentle anticyclonic
flow prevails across the basin, as noted in scatterometer data.
Little change in the current synoptic pattern is expected during
the next two days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is moving over mostly Central America while
another wave is entering the eastern portion of the basin. A Gale
Warning is also in effect for the south-central Caribbean waters
just north of Colombia. Refer to the sections above for details.
Aside from these features, fair weather prevails elsewhere.
Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades across the
basin, with the strongest winds between 67W-75W. Expect for the
waves to continue moving west through the next 24 hours enhancing
convection. The gale-force winds will diminish by late this
morning.

...HISPANIOLA...

Fair weather prevails across the island at this time. Expect for
diurnal-type convection to develop in the afternoon hours during
the next 24 hours. A tropical wave will enter the island in 48
hours enhancing convection.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Three tropical waves were analyzed over the basin. Refer to the
Tropical Waves section above for details. A surface trough over
the central Atlantic curving from 29N45W to 14N44W with no
significant convection. The remainder of the basin remains under
the influence of a broad surface ridge, anchored by a 1033 mb
high centered just northeast of the Azores.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net