[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020539
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
138 AM EDT Sun Jul 2 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Gale Warning...

A stronger pressure gradient over the south central Caribbean is
supporting strong to gale-force winds from 11N to 13N between 73W
and 77W. These conditions will continue through late Sunday
morning. For more details, please refer to the High Seas Forecast
product under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extents its axis from 17N18W to 06N17W and it has
been moving west at 5-10 kt within the last 24 hours. The wave is
in a moderate moist environment with patches of dry air according
to CIRA LPW imagery. Shallow moisture and upper-level diffluence
support scattered showers in the vicinity of the wave's axis
mainly east of 22W.

A tropical wave is in the east Atlantic with axis extending from
15N29W to 04N32W, moving west at 10 kt within the last 24 hours.
The wave is in a moderate moist environment with patches of dry
air according to CIRA LPW imagery. Satellite enhanced imagery show
Saharan dry air and dust intrusion in the wave's environment.
Shallow moisture and upper-level diffluence support scattered
showers north of 10N between 30W-34W.

A tropical wave is moving across the Windward Islands and
Venezuela with axis extending from 17N58W to 05N62W, moving west
at 15-20 kt within the last 24 hours. The wave is in a moderate
moist environment with patches of dry air according to CIRA LPW
imagery. Shallow moisture and upper level diffluence support
isolated showers along the wave's axis.

A tropical wave is in the W Caribbean and central America with
axis extending from 19N85W into the Pacific region near 10N87W,
moving west at 20 kt within the last 24 hours. The wave is in an
area of abundant moisture that combined with a diffluent flow
aloft to the west of the wave's axis supports scattered moderate
convection currently affecting portions of Guatemala, Honduras,
Nicaragua, as well as the adjacent waters south of 18N west of
83W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from the west coast of Africa near
11N16W to 09N26W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from
09N34W to 09N58W. The convection observed near these boundaries is
mostly related to tropical waves. Refer to the section above for
details.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1019 mb surface high is centered near 29N87W. With this, surface
ridging extends across the basin. An area of scattered moderate
convection is moving west across the Yucatan Peninsula reaching
the Bay of Campeche mainly south of 20N between 90W-94W.
A light to gentle anticyclonic flow prevails across the basin, as
noted in scatterometer data. Little change in the current
synoptic pattern is expected during the next two days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is moving over the western Caribbean waters and
across Central America while another wave is entering the eastern
portion of the basin. A Gale Warning is also in effect for the
south-central Caribbean waters just north of Colombia. Refer to
the sections above for details. Aside from these features, fair
weather prevails elsewhere. Scatterometer data depicts moderate
to fresh trades across the basin, with the strongest winds between
67W-75W. Expect for the waves to continue moving west through the
next 24 hours enhancing convection. The gale-force winds will
diminish by late this morning.

...HISPANIOLA...

Isolated showers are observed across the island at this time.
Expect for diurnal-type convection to develop in the afternoon
hours during the next 24 hours. A tropical wave will euphoric the
island in 48 hours enhancing convection.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Three tropical waves were analyzed over the basin. Refer to the
Tropical Waves section above for details. A surface trough over
the central Atlantic curving from 28N44W to 11N46W with no
significant convection. The remainder of the basin remains under
the influence of a broad surface ridge, anchored by a 1034 mb high
centered just northeast of the Azores.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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