[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 310524
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1224 AM EST Tue Jan 31 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is along 31N63W to 20N73W. Westerly Gale force winds,
and sea heights ranging from 10 feet to 12 feet, north of 29N to
the west of the cold front to 71W, ending soon. Please read the NWS
High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
for more details.

...GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

The 30-hour forecast consists of NE gale-force winds and sea
heights ranging from 9 feet to 12 feet from 10.5N to 13N between
74W and 77W. A localized strong pressure gradient is expected to
develop in the SW Caribbean Sea by 01/0600 UTC offshore in the
coastal waters of Colombia. Please read the latest NWS High Seas
Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more
details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through Sierra Leone near 08N13W to
04N18W. The ITCZ continues from 04N18W to 01N25W. Convective
precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from
04N southward from 08W eastward, and from 04N southward between
23W and NE South America. Isolated moderate from 06N southward
between 08W and 23W.

...DISCUSSION...

...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...

Upper level W wind flow, from 90W westward, becomes SW wind flow
to the east of 90W and beyond Florida and the northern half of the
Bahamas, into the western part of the Atlantic Ocean. Upper level
SW wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean to the NW of the line that
passes through 32N60W 25N70W 21N75W. A cold front passes through
Bermuda, to 30N70W, across Great Abaco and surrounding islands in
the Bahamas, through the Straits of Florida, to 23N85W in the SE
corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Rainshowers are possible within 200
nm to 250 nm to the NW of the line that passes through 32N61W
27N67W 23N78W, and from Cuba to 23N between 74W and 78W.

A 1025 mb high pressure center is in the north central Mexico
near 27N91W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of
Mexico from 24N northward, away from the southernmost point of the
Atlantic Ocean-to-Gulf of Mexico cold front. A surface ridge also
extends from the 1025 mb high pressure center, to the Isthmus of
Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Gale-force winds are forecast to
continue for the next 18 hours or so, in the Gulf of Tehuantepec,
on the eastern Pacific Ocean side of southern Mexico. Please read
the EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03
KNHC...and the EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER
DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...for more details.

...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: none.

MVFR: KIKT, KVOA.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

from TEXAS to FLORIDA: VFR.

...FROM THE WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
INCLUDING THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front passes through 32N62W, to 23N70W, across the
SE Bahamas near 21N72W, across SE Cuba, to 19N80W in NW corner of
the Caribbean Sea, to the eastern part of Honduras. Rainshowers
are possible from 14N northward from 80W westward.

Middle level-to-upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the
Caribbean Sea from a 16N82W cyclonic circulation center, to an
Hispaniola cyclonic circulation center. Upper level southerly wind
flow covers the area that is between 60W and Puerto Rico.

Comparatively drier air, in subsidence, is apparent in water
vapor imagery, from 68W westward.

24-HOUR rainfall amounts in inches, for the period ending at
31/0000 UTC, according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES, MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC, 0.02 in Guadeloupe.

...HISPANIOLA...

Cyclonic wind flow, from 350 mb to 800 mb, is moving across
Hispaniola, with a trough. Comparatively drier air in subsidence
is apparent in water vapor imagery, across the entire area.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: VFR. for the
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR. Santo Domingo/La Romana/Punta
Cana: VFR. Santiago/Puerto Plata: VFR.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that NW-becoming-W wind
flow will move across Hispaniola during day one of the 48-hour
forecast period. An upper level trough will continue to move
eastward away from Puerto Rico. Day two will consist of W-to-SW
wind flow, as a ridge develops across the area. The GFS MODEL
forecast for 500 MB shows that anticyclonic wind flow from a ridge
will span the area during the next 48 hours. The GFS MODEL
forecast for 700 mb shows that an inverted trough will cover the
area during day one. Day two will consist of E-to-SE wind flow.

..THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A deep layer trough extends from the Western Sahara, to just to
the north of the Cabo Verde Islands, to 14N30W and 11N42W.
Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
imagery within 200 nm to the north of 17N16W 17N27W, within 360 nm
to 440 nm to the north of 17N27W 09N40W, and within 600 nm to the
north of 09N40W 10N50W.

An upper level anticyclonic circulation center is near 28N43W. A
1030 mb high pressure center is near 29N38W. A surface ridge
passes through 32N27W to 25N55W, to 23N65W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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